Draws and Fades: Shriners Children's Open

Like the effects of full and new moons on tides, in a couple iterations of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf over the years, shootouts have allowed for greater surges. Of course, this also means that there is the potential for a deeper setback with a poor team performance.

RELATED: Horses for Courses, Statistically Speaking

The phenomenon on the game play this season is more impactful because pars are worth one point. With solid, pre-cut play at the Shriners Children’s Open, because TPC Summerlin has been the easiest par 71 on the PGA TOUR three seasons running (and in ideal weather similar to this week’s), you already would be scoring more points with more par breakers than your opponents who don’t have at least four make the cut, but now you’re scoring more points overall because of the elevated value of pars.

My first priority when building my roster is to establish six who are projected to make the cut. But, because golf if a four-letter word, better-laid plans often are ruined. To wit, I’ve had exactly and only three cash in each of the first two tournaments of 2022-23.

The old chestnut about insanity doesn’t apply to this pursuit, however. Golf is golf, and fantasy golf is fantasy golf. Stick to your process because this is the wrong week to absorb more zeroes.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Si Woo Kim (-160 for a Top 20) … Speaking of golf is golf, he slotted No. 12 (of 12) for the Internationals in my Power Rankings for the Presidents Cup, and then led the team with three points by going 3-1-0 in the losing cause. Go figure. The swing to the extremes essentially defines our visceral reaction over time. We love that he loves to play often, but we could do without so many mid-tournament withdrawals. Of course, we also love how often he plays well, but there’s little causality from one start to the next. The positive spin, at least for him, is that if there was a Power Rankings based on the suspicion of which guys have the shortest memories, he’d be prominently positioned in it. So, here we are at TPC Summerlin where he’s 4-for-5 with a trio of top 15s and a scoring average of 68.22 in 18 rounds. Recent form suggests that he’ll add to the success, but he still angles in as a contrarian in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf because of the persistent doubt.

DRAWS

Rickie Fowler (+225 for a Top 20) … Set aside the enormity of his shortcomings of the last whatever period of time that you prefer. He’s poised for an inflection point right now. He’s fresh off a T6 at the Fortinet, which occurred amid news that he’s reunited with Butch Harmon, who’s based in Las Vegas, which is where Fowler finished T3 at THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT a year ago and where this week’s Shriners is contested. Fowler’s last of four career top 25s on TPC Summerlin was a T4 in 2018. It’s also a perfect time to remind you that the 33-year-old is in his contract season.

Cam Davis (-145 for a Top 40) … I’m not cool, but I’m cautious. Continue to love him in the long-term, but he’s in a transitional spot right now. An outstanding last four months of the 2021-22 season proved why he shoulders high expectations, but it’s fair to wonder if a letdown is brewing if his Presidents Cup debut was the endpoint of the arc. He’s perfect in three tries at TPC Summerlin, but none went for a top 25 and none were in the context of what’s he’s experiencing right now.

Mark Hubbard (-110 for a Top 40) … While he’s still falling short of what’s so often a first PGA TOUR victory, he still needs to be valued for continuing to put himself into position to strike. Last week’s T5 was his third top-five finish of the last three months and the latest in a litany of impressive results scattered across 2022. He’s 3-for-6 at TPC Summerlin and with no better than a T35 in 2015, but his current trajectory projects for a personal best this week.

Alex Noren (-145 for a Top 40) … Reviewing his current two-week stretch, this is a little like if the Los Angeles Rams were coming off a tight game in the snow, wind and cold of Green Bay before returning home to the much more comfortable climes of a home game the following weekend. While there’s open air at SoFi Stadium in L.A., it’s essentially indoors, just like the Swede’s test at TPC Summerlin this week. He finished T2 in less-than-desirable conditions at the Dunhill Links last week and he’s making his Shriners debut. The last time he crossed continents in the same short time frame, he chased a T30 at the Genesis Scottish Open with a solo second at the Barracuda Championship. That was inside three months ago.

Justin Suh (+125 for a Top 40) … Keep the faith, at least in DFS, but the leash is shortening rapidly. After opening his membership debut with a pair of bad missed cuts, TPC Summerlin will embrace his aggressive tendencies. He can reconnect with what got him here and what slotted him No. 1 on the 2022 Korn Ferry Tour in the all-around ranking. He’s also not a debutant in the tournament, having finished T8 in 2020.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Will Gordon
Adam Hadwin
Lee Hodges
Chris Kirk
Matt Kuchar
K.H. Lee
Denny McCarthy
Scott Piercy
Seamus Power
Kevin Streelman
Adam Svensson
Nick Taylor

Odds sourced on Tuesday, October 4th at 7 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm

FADES

J.T. Poston … Y’all know that I’ve never ridden fences and that I approach my opinion from a conservative position. The thought is to start at the bottom and work my way up. With only one winner every week and so much “losing,” it’s the proper way to prognosticate. I remind you of that because he’s been on some kind of run for a little over three months, but he missed the cut at the Sanderson Farms (where he was No. 3 in my Power Rankings; see RECAP below). If he had extended his form, he’d likely have been a mild draw because his course history at TPC Summerlin is a mixed bag. In six trips, he’s scored under par in every opening round but he’s cashed only twice. One of those was for a T4 in 2017. So, this week serves as a terrific test to observe how what’s been working for him lately can lift him in a tournament that’s given him fits more often than not.

Mito Pereira … Life comes at ya fast when you’re a PGA TOUR rookie and one of the best in your class, as he was in 2021-22. The Chilean scaled into the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking with his disappointing T3 at the PGA Championship, and he retained that form for another two weeks, but it’s been a whole lotta nada since – just 4-for-6 without a top 40 and a 0-2-1 showing in his Presidents Cup debut. Even with accepted rigors contributing to the slump, many others weren’t upended despite similar scheduling.

Cameron Champ … Just 1-for-3 at TPC Summerlin (T28, 2018) and has continued to pop way too infrequently since winning the 3M Open a little over 14 months ago. Wrist issue, bad habits as a result of playing through it, or whatever, the struggle has been real for a guy who has made it look so easy at times.

Keith Mitchell … The 30-year-old has been gliding along for about a year now, but he’s 0-for-4 at TPC Summerlin despite six red numbers among eight scores.

Ben Martin … While your instinct might be to wonder why he deserved attention at all, much less as a Fade, it was at TPC Summerlin in 2014 where he recorded his lone PGA TOUR title. He answered with a T25 in his title defense, and then missed the cut in the following two editions and hasn’t returned since. His close call at Corales earlier this year was one of the most poignantly self-aware moments of 2022, so it was gratifying how he rose to the challenge in the KFT Finals to secure his PGA TOUR card once again, but all of these are short-lived and overextending examples of what he’s capable of achieving, not who has been week in and week out.

Zac Blair … Served notice upon return this summer with three top 25s contributing to a 6-for-6 stretch across two tours. The streak was punctuated by a T12 at the season-opening Fortinet Championship. However, he missed the cut last week and he’s missed five straight at TPC Summerlin since 2015. Just don’t let it deter you from a full-season investment. He’s equipped with a full slate of starts via a Major Medical Extension, so he’ll be able to pick and choose the opens in which he competes.

Byeong Hun An
Jason Day
Harris English
Danny Lee
Maverick McNealy
Chez Reavie
Patrick Rodgers
Brendon Todd
Gary Woodland

NOTABLE WDs

Trey Mullinax … It’s too soon to know for sure but it would be surprising if he didn’t tee it up in each of the next two weeks. He’s never qualified for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and THE CJ CUP in South Carolina until now. So, after finishing 2021-22 with a flourish that included his breakthrough victory at the Barbasol Championship, and then opening this season 0-for-2, a break right now makes sense. It also gives him a chance to acclimate to Japan early if he makes the trip.

Davis Riley … Like Mullinax, Riley also qualified for the first two invitationals of the 2022-23 season for the first time. If anything, no matter performances leading up to the forthcoming fortnight, the more surprising fact isn’t that each committed to and withdrew early from the Shriners, but that either committed in the first place.

RECAP – SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer Result

1 Sahith Theegala MC
2 Harris English MC
3 J.T. Poston MC
4 Davis Thompson T67
5 Sam Burns T30
6 Denny McCarthy T39
7 Emiliano Grillo T5
8 Scott Stallings T13
9 Trey Mullinax MC
10 Taylor Montgomery T9
11 Russell Henley MC
12 Davis Riley T19
13 Byeong Hun An MC
14 Taylor Moore T24
15 Henrik Norlander T24
Wild Card Chris Kirk T30

SLEEPERS

Golfer (Bet, if applicable) Result

Adam Hadwin (+225 for a Top 20) T45
Aaron Rai (+225 for a Top 20) T61
MJ Daffue T61
Zecheng Dou T54
Lee Hodges T30

GOLFBET

Bet: Davis Riley, Wyndham Clark and Taylor Moore – All the Make the Cut (+180)
Result: Riley (T19), Clark (MC), Moore (T24)

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

October 4 … none
October 5 … Kelly Kraft (34)
October 6 … none
October 7 … none
October 8 … none
October 9 … none
October 10 … Charlie Beljan (38)

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