Draws and Fades: U.S. Open

In my season-opener of this space, I previewed and analyzed the newest iteration of PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. It included a reference to how tough courses could yield negative fantasy scoring in every round, and I singled out the U.S. Open at The Country Club as an event during which to be cautious and calculating.

RELATED: Horses for Courses, Sleeper picks

If you’ve played enough, at least one golfer has valued below zero in a round. For example, in Draws and Fades for the PGA Championship, I shared that Matt Kuchar totaled one point as one of my Starters for all four rounds en route to a T49 at the Wells Fargo Championship. He concluded play in 7-over 287. Thanks for almost nothin’!

Here we are now with the U.S. Open batting third in Segment 4, so it’s time for those lessons to matter.

If we can (easily) agree that, even with bonus points for daily low scores, round-by-round scoring will be negligible in the long-term. Sure, you’ll observe high performers who guess right with their lottery tickets, but you cannot take your eyes off the FedExCup Playoffs and the quadrupled bonus points.

The winner of the U.S. Open will receive 600 FedExCup points. That translates into 60 bonus points in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Consider that one fourth-place finish in any of the Playoffs events will yield 54 bonus points. Wins in the last three tournaments will pay 200 points. So, the advice is to continue to remain as patient as possible without allowing your target to separate more than you think you can handle.

If you’re pacing, the strategy is the same. Your insurance is the Playoffs, and like your opponents, you’re going to score more points pretty much everywhere else in Segment 4 than you are this week, so focus on golfers to make the cut and with the potential to make noise on the weekend.

Of course, we have entered a place in time when familiar faces are projected to make starts in only the remaining two majors of the season. No matter your current position in your league, lean into a couple of these guys to offset the starts you’ll want and need for those who are eligible for the Playoffs.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Brooks Koepka (+160 for a Top 20) … When he doesn’t appear in the Power Rankings for a major, that gives you all you need to know about where I’ve landed for the four-time major champion. In the U.S. Open alone, he has two wins, a runner-up, two T4s and another two top 20s all among his last seven appearances. He’s the perfect spell for chasers in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf because front-runners, at least the conservative among them, will worry about the inconsistent form upon arrival. But honestly, he’s reached a level in the majors specifically not unlike where Tiger Woods soared for years; that is, because of the body of work, you have a preset and how that plays into your strategy. This is to say that, unless he acknowledges a recurring injury – he hasn’t – nothing has changed since the last time we faced this decision.

DRAWS

Sungjae Im (+400 for a Top 10) … His unfortunate DNP at the PGA Championship due to travel restrictions related to COVID-19 didn’t deter him. If anything, the additional rest, something he rarely seeks or needs an abundance of, likely was the unintentional benefit. He’s gone T15-T10 since and easily warrants a prop here that should’ve slotted him as an automatic in the Power Rankings.

Tommy Fleetwood (+190 for a Top 20) … If only more international non-members would start a PGA TOUR season with conditional status! In my full-membership fantasy ranking before the season, I comped him to Shane Lowry, who scuffled with fully exempt status in 2016-17 and 2017-18 before landing victory at The Open Championship while on conditional status. It may not seem like a big deal for guys with a lofty Official World Golf Ranking (Fleetwood currently is 40th) but there have been examples over time – Lowry was the most recent – for which it seems to at least simplifies scheduling. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but for now, the Brit deserves strong consideration in every format at the U.S. Open.

Keegan Bradley (+250 for a Top 20) … Invest a unit or three, if for no other reason than the relative home game. But hey, he’s been electric throughout the season, and his putting is improved, so all arrows are pointed upward, anyway.

Mito Pereira (+190 for a Top 20) … The mettle on this guy! So upset by the turn of events on the 72nd hole of the PGA Championship that he answered with a T7 at Colonial and a T13 at Muirfield Village. At seventh on TOUR in greens hit and 19th in scrambling, he’s also seventh in bogey avoidance. And since the recent surge has punctuated what already was impressive form, he figures to contribute to your success at the U.S. Open.

Cameron Young (+150 for a Top 20) … The clubhouse leader for the Rookie of the Year award has five podium finishes on the season, and on the most challenging of tracks, including three in a row terminating at the PGA Championship. What shouldn’t be overlooked is how deft he’s been in his scheduling. He’s been patient and smart about not overdoing it, and it’s kept him fresh enough to slot 16th in the FedExCup standings. Among all non-winners this season, only Will Zalatoris (13th) sits higher. Of course, both are still chasing their first PGA TOUR title, too.

Davis Riley (+220 for a Top 20) … The recipient of the Arnold Palmer Award likely will be the last rookie standing in the Playoffs, but the totality of his season will serve as a tiebreaker, if necessary, among eligible voters. After a relatively quiet first half, the 25-year-old has come on strong enough to warrant the kind of attention deserving of a nod. He arrived at The County Club having strung together four top 10s and a pair of T13s, one of which at the PGA Championship. If he’d have prevailed in the playoff at the Valspar Championship, he’d likely be the front-runner to be the ROY.

Webb Simpson (+100 for a Top 40) … He hasn’t lit any stages on fire lately, but even though he’s yet to put four rounds together post-neck injury, he’s still making cuts. Strong starts have made it possible, so consider seriously as a R1 leader in addition to this finish. He’s cashed in 19 of the last 20 majors.

Patrick Reed (+275 for a Top 20) … Continues to tease but all that matters is that he’s securing tee times on weekends. Since an uncharacteristic 0-for-3 in late winter, he’s 6-for-7 in stroke-play competition, albeit with just one top 25. Furthermore, he regularly plays up in the majors, so even when a course doesn’t seem to fit, he figures out a way to convert a top 20.

Louis Oosthuizen (+220 for a Top 40) … Essentially the same analysis as Reed above, but with a lower expectation. Oosthuizen has played sparingly but he’s making cuts and he’s been a force in the majors for years.

Abraham Ancer
Talor Gooch
Brian Harman
Viktor Hovland
Sebastián Muñoz
Kevin Na
Alex Noren
Justin Rose
Adam Scott
Harold Varner III
Aaron Wise

Odds sourced on Tuesday, June 14th at 8 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm

FADES

Phil Mickelson … His first official competition in over four months is his latest attempt to capture the career grand slam, so respect the rust. He’s also gone six straight U.S. Opens without a top-45 finish.

Dustin Johnson … Based on reaction that reaches me, he’s the top snub from the Power Rankings, but that really shouldn’t surprise anyone. Sure, he’s a former champ (2016) with a series of fantastic finishes across numerous tests, but we always need to consider what a guy has done for us lately. When the lights are brighter, expectations are higher. It’s ridiculous to toss him into the pile of contrarians, but there’s nothing to debate.

Bryson DeChambeau … In his first start post-wrist surgery, he shot 76-77 and missed the cut at Muirfield Village. It’s the latest in a lost year for the 28-year-old and our expectations must be governed by the likelihood that no one will rekindle form at The Country Club.

Tyrrell Hatton … This relative assessment is one with which gamers of the last three years can agree. No matter how strong he presents for every difficult course, he’s come up short much more often than he’s delivered. Until he regains consistency, leave him to full-season formats and accept the positive results as a bonus.

Marc Leishman … Glowing full-season statistics need to step aside for recency bias. The Aussie continues to misfire similarly to how he responded from the three-month shutdown of 2020. And aside from the Masters, he’s had no impact in the majors in five years.

Gary Woodland … Either he’s back in a rut or it’s just who he always will be now. Not that there’s anything wrong with that because the 38-year-old still contributes to long-term investors, so our reaction is predictable. Also of note, since he prevailed at Pebble Beach in 2019 U.S. Open, he’s just 5-for-10 and without a top 30 in the majors.

Francesco Molinari … Despite a couple of mild needle-moving performances, he’s falling short on fulfilling expectations for full-season owners, much less those of us calling on him for spot starts. In his prime, he’d have populated the Power Rankings for this U.S. Open at The Country Club, but the 39-year-old continues to separate from his heyday.

Adam Hadwin
Mackenzie Hughes
K.H. Lee
Luke List
Cameron Tringale
Erik van Rooyen

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Satoshi Kodaira … Walked off St. George’s during the second round with a sore back. It extended his skid to 0-for-4, which included a start on the Korn Ferry Tour. Currently 163rd in the FedExCup with only five paydays in 10 starts, playing time limited to conditional status and commitments to his native Japan Golf Tour in the fall.

NOTABLES WDs

Tiger Woods … Sitting this one out in favor of a stronger body when he hopes to return to organized competition in early July. He made the cut in the first two majors, but he withdrew from the PGA Championship after a third-round 79 at Southern Hills.

Paul Casey … Remains sidelined indefinitely due to extended discomfort in his back.

Martin Kaymer … The streak of consecutive U.S. Open appearances for the 2014 champ ends at 14 due to an injured wrist.

RECAP – RBC CANADIAN OPEN

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Scottie Scheffler T18
2 Justin Thomas 3rd
3 Sam Burns T4
4 Shane Lowry T10
5 Rory McIlroy Win
6 Cameron Smith T48
7 Corey Conners 6th
8 Matt Fitzpatrick T10
9 Tony Finau 2nd
10 Tyrrell Hatton MC
11 Adam Hadwin T35
12 Brendon Todd T13
13 Harold Varner III T13
14 Patrick Reed DNP
15 Sebastián Muñoz T25
Wild Card Chris Kirk T7

SLEEPERS

Golfer (Bet) Result
Aaron Cockerill (+800 for a Top 20) T48
Tyler Duncan (+400 for a Top 20) MC
Christopher Gotterup (+500 for a Top 20) MC
John Huh (+400 for a Top 20) T25
J.T. Poston (+300 for a Top 20) MC

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

June 14 … Lee Hodges (27)
June 15 … Lanto Griffin (34); Cameron Champ (27)
June 16 … none
June 17 … David Hearn (43)
June 18 … none
June 19 … none
June 20 … Charles Howell III (43)