Draws and Fades: Mexico Open at Vidanta

In Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf for the Mexico Open at Vidanta, I wrote that the goal is not to use Jon Rahm.

He qualified for my roster as a obvious defensive measure, but the plan is sit him unless he’s contending for the title on Sunday. If he cranks out 25 points in R1, R2 and/or R3, so be it. The risk doesn’t warrant those rewards, no matter how likely you expect them against the field.

RELATED: Horses for Courses| Sleeper picks

The Mexico Open at Vidanta is the Spaniard’s second start of Segment 3 (T27, Masters). If he follows his schedule from the super season of 2020-21, he’d be making four more starts in this phase. However, even if he appears only at, say, the PGA Championship and the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, if you burned him at the Masters and will again this week, you’d be stuck with just one remaining. Ask yourself now how you’d rank the timing of his impact.

Just like when Tiger Woods was a fixture in fantasy, the most challenging decisions in the extinct Yahoo! Format was how to ration 10 starts. Rahm isn’t at that level but he’s on the short list for whom we’re compelled to consider the possibilities to maximize – and leverage – his playing time.

Here’s the gist…

1) You can play Rahm in all four rounds at Vidanta Vallarta – assuming he makes the cut, of course – and absorb the push with your opposition because a high percentage of it will do the same. In highly competitive situations, it’s a fair and reasonable exercise.

OR

2) Because round-by-round scoring in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf is muted – unless, again, Rahm tosses up bogey-free, field-low 64s every day – stow him on your bench for the first two rounds. If he’s among at least five who make the cut, keep him benched until his position at the conclusion of three rounds. If in contention, burn the start as a defensive measure for the FedExCup bonus points.

No matter what you do, including abstaining entirely so as not to put yourself in a position to be tempted in favor of long-range goals, it’s the middle of the season. Heck, I slow-played the big guy in Segment 4 last season and it proved to be the difference-maker in the FedExCup Playoffs because my nearest opponent, Ben Everill, had exhausted Rahm’s allotted starts one tournament too soon.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Patrick Reed (+125 for a Top 20) … When you read in the Power Rankings that he was teased for Draws and Fades, you likely also figured that his odds to be the Wild Card were somewhere in the vicinity of (-10000). Thus, boom. Certainly, on cachet alone, he demands analysis, but he’s the reverse split for what projects to matter at Vidanta Vallarta, and he hasn’t connected for a top 25 in a full field since a co-runner-up at Bermuda on Halloween. I’d draw a direct line from his heavyweight status in that field to this one but it’s been six months and it’s not that simple. Even contrarian investors are scratching their heads at his inflated value this week. Pass.

DRAWS

Kevin Streelman (+175 for a Top 20) … If you ever wondered why I’ve lamented for an obnoxious period of time why he’s Kryptonite, use his last start at Harbour Town as proof. There he was on a track where he missed only one cut in nine tries prior. His record includes three top 10s and another top 20. He also was comin’ in hot since the start of the Florida Swing. Lo and behold, despite an endorsement in this space, he failed to cash. But I’m back on board in Mexico because I’m doubling down on the strong(-enough) form and discounting the occasional missed cuts. If there’s a tightrope separating short- and long-term confidence, he walks it, and we should know better, but I just can’t quit Streels.

Davis Riley (+225 for a Top 20) … I’d prefer a top-40 or make-the-cut prop but the rookie already has demonstrated a level of comfort near the lead. In fact, he runs towards it on Moving Day as he’s T8 on the PGA TOUR in R3 scoring, but the learning curve has put him in his place more often in finales. It’s to be expected but with a P2 (Valspar) and a T4 (with Will Zalatoris at Zurich) as recent objects in the sideview mirror, hop on the bandwagon and attach emotion. It’s how we apply our own learning experience.

Pat Perez (+300 for a Top 20) … What’s that you say? Paspalum?? Thank you. That’ll be all. (OK, so that’s getting off easy because he did miss the cut at Mayakoba in November, but he may still have been feeling the effect of a foot injury just prior to it. More recently, he’s 7-for-9 since the Farmers.)

Callum Tarren (+500 for a Top 20) … Ease into a make-the-cut line here, but don’t be that surprised if he pops for more. The rookie from England landed a T5 on the paspalum in Puerto Rico, and he finished T7 at the Korn Ferry Tour’s Veritex Championship two weeks ago before making the cut (with fellow Brit, David Skinns) in New Orleans. He’s already one of the more proficient tee to green, and now his confidence is elevated.

Wyndham Clark
David Lipsky
C.T. Pan
Brian Stuard

Odds sourced on Tuesday, April 26 at 6 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm.

FADES

Chez Reavie … He’s still splitting fairways with the best of ‘em, but his approach game has cost him time and again and it’s not like his putter is bailing him out. The 40-year-old bunter already is borderline unownable in full-season formats.

Lanto Griffin … He’s gone five consecutive starts without a top 50 and his pedestrian tee-to-green game is uninspiring. He’s more valuable in the long-term, anyway.

Adam Long … After a couple of months of failing to turn cuts made into top 25s, he finished T12 at the RBC Heritage thanks to a wicked-hot week with the putter. He missed only once inside 10 feet and was perfect on 65 looks from eight feet and in. The small greens at Harbour Town cater to that kind of performance, and he is a terrific putter, but it’s in the minority of expectations because ball-strikers and shot-makers tend to box out for most positions at and near the top of that leaderboard. The same narrative applies this week but not because the greens at Vidanta Vallarta are similarly sized. They’re unfamiliar, so good putters project to lag, pardon the pun. A payday is a fair expectation, and through 2021, he was consistent in delivering strong weekends when he made it, but the advice now is to invest fractionally at most.

Rafa Cabrera Bello
Brice Garnett
J.T. Poston
Scott Stallings
Matt Wallace

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Sebastián Muñoz … By the time he pierces the paspalum on Thursday, it’ll have been a month since his last competitive action (T26, Match Play). The Colombian was committed to the RBC Heritage until an injured back took precedent. The good news is that he’s connected six paydays in advance of his trip to Vidanta Vallarta. He’s also a good fit on paper for the test. At the same time, you likely wouldn’t have a need to put faith in his fitness in any situation other than an aggressive DFS ploy.

NOTABLES WDs

Daniel Berger … If not for a sore back, he’d have been a favorite this week. It’s the same malady that thwarted his title defense at Pebble Beach in early February, but he’s fared predictively well since. Just 65th in the FedExCup, however.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout … Tag-teamed a T32 with fellow South African Charl Schwartzel in NOLA and now sits 94th in the FedExCup. Looking ahead, while not yet officially exempt, Bezuidenhout has been able to plan on a trip to the PGA Championship via his Official World Golf Ranking, but at 66th, he’s just outside the upcoming bubble for entry into the U.S. Open.

Kevin Chappell … Since his status demotion (for failing to meet the terms of his medical extension), he’s 3-for-4 with a pair of top 20s. Remember, he wasn’t certain that he was going to continue to pursue playing time if he didn’t fulfill the medical, so his is an emerging compelling story. Of course, it also makes sense to table a long-term decision until the conclusion of the regular season, but we’re not often treated to peeks behind that curtain, so we can’t forget about it now. Meanwhile, it’s a bummer that he’s out at Vidanta Vallarta. His tee-to-green profile would have positioned him automatically for a make-the-cut prop.

Nick Hardy … Placed a career-best T21 with Curtis Thompson at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and now ranks 190th in the FedExCup. Neither rookie has found his stride, so it was a timely injection of something positive.

Charley Hoffman … This is his fourth early WD of the season. The first three were as a result of an injured back, and given his extended slump, it’s fair to attach it to either a continuation of the discomfort or a bad habit picked up while trying to play through it. Whatever the case, the 45-year-old is 180th in the FedExCup and not yet exempt for next season. (Worst case, and if he wanted, he’d be eligible for a career earnings exemption since he’s currently 36th all-time.)

RECAP – ZURICH CLASSIC OF NEW ORLEANS

POWER RANKINGS

Power Ranking Team Result

1 Scottie Scheffler & Ryan Palmer T18
2 Cameron Smith & Marc Leishman T21
3 Billy Horschel & Sam Burns 2nd
4 Xander Schauffele & Patrick Cantlay Win
5 Max Homa & Talor Gooch T21
6 Danny Willett & Tyrrell Hatton T21
7 Collin Morikawa & Viktor Hovland T29
8 Sergio Garcia & Tommy Fleetwood MC
9 Keegan Bradley & Brendan Steele T4
10 Sungjae Im & Byeong Hun An T14
Wild Card Bubba Watson & Harold Varner III T4

OTHERS CONSIDERED

Team Result

Joaquin Niemann & Mito Pereira WD
Will Zalatoris & Davis Riley T4
Adam Hadwin & Adam Svensson MC
Matthew NeSmith & Taylor Moore T4
Sahith Theegala & Beau Hossler MC

SLEEPERS

Golfer (Bet) Result

Graeme McDowell & Seamus Power (+4000 to win) MC
Brian Stuard & Russell Knox (+6600 to win) T21
Aaron Rai & David Lipsky (+8000 to win) T4

GOLFBET

Bet: Sungjae Im & Byeong Hun An (+300 for a Top 10)

Result: T14

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

April 26 … J.B. Holmes (41)
April 27 … none
April 28 … none
April 29 … Justin Thomas (29)
April 30 … none
May 1 … Chris Couch (49); Sepp Straka (29)
May 2 … none