Draws and Fades: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
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All-time moments from the beaches at AT&T Pebble Beach
In case you missed it last week, the Fantasy Insider now is Draws and Fades. It’s just a name change, so you’re still in the right place.
This week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is the last of this season’s four tournaments contested on multiple courses. While PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf gamers always are angling to load up on the easiest tracks in these situations, there’s another wrinkle to fantasy scoring that demands attention.
End-of-round bonuses for lowest and second-lowest rounds are determined by score in relation to par, not in the aggregate. While a nine-under 62 at Monterey Peninsula Country Club’s Shore Course could check both boxes, anyway, it’s important to cite that an 8-under 64 at Spyglass Hill would earn a higher bonus than a 7-under 64 at MPCC. Refer to the Rules for all of that detail.
As noted in Expert Picks, I will be building a roster so as to fulfill the possibility of six starts on MPCC because of what I explained in the Power Rankings. Because weather is unlikely to influence on which days I choose for my charges, my only conflict would be if at least five of them are on the same rotation. Tee times were not available when I filed this, so it’s possible that I’ll be making a change or two to my lineup before the opening round.
POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD
Matt Kuchar (+220 for a Top 20) … Consider him to be the Power Rankings’ +1. It’s been a minute since he recorded a top 20 in this tournament – 13 years to be exact; T14 in 2009 – but he finished T16 at Pebble Beach in the 2019 U.S. Open. Granted, that’s a long time ago, too, but short courses on which he’s hitting approaches from the shortest grass most of the time qualify him to be in our crosshairs. A T7 at Waialae three weeks ago not only proves that point, but it also serves as the most recent object in the rearview mirror onto which we can latch our confidence.
DRAWS
Aaron Rai (+225 for a Top 20) … The more we see of the 26-year-old rookie, the more we appreciate to the extent that he’s fulfilling the higher expectation of transitioning to the PGA TOUR as a two-time winner on the DP WORLD Tour. His T6 at Torrey Pines was a career-best on this circuit, albeit in just 17 starts, but it validates three straight top 20s to conclude the fall. Bottom line, he’s settled in.
Brandt Snedeker (+300 for a Top 20) … I’m willing to dismiss last year’s results for all as anomalous because only two courses were in play and we truly care about apples-to-apples comparisons when we can have them, but the two-time champion (2013, 2015) has missed the cut in this event for three consecutive years. Still, he’s had a flash or two early in 2022, including a T14 at the Amex, and we know what kind of potential he presents on Poa greens, so he has a place in DFS.
Charl Schwartzel (+400 for a Top 20) … There aren’t many (any?) good stories about a touring professional traveling from a start in the Middle East to the West Coast without taking a week off. Jet lag is the legitimate concern for the 37-year-old. However, as we’ve known forever, South Africans are more accustomed to long plane rides (no matter what form of aviation) than all others in the sport. He also has the promise of three rounds to made noise. And he finished T5 in his only prior appearance, which was just two years ago. Settle for a lower expectation than this prop, but he still knows how to find paydirt.
Sahith Theegala (+300 for a Top 20) … I dig recent collegians who are finding early comfort on the PGA TOUR and who get to be exposed to this format. While early-week pro-ams teach all rookies a little bit about the business side, events like the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am introduce the component of entertainment that helps fuel a segment of the fan base. There’s plenty of time for returning to the all-business portion of the season, but this is a lot about having a good time. The can’t-miss product from Pepperdine is off to a solid start this season, so he’s earned the right to allow an enjoyable week serve as the backdrop for him to continue to sign for red numbers.
Lanto Griffin
Adam Hadwin
Matt Jones
Pat Perez
Andrew Putnam
Scott Stallings
Nick Taylor
Vince Whaley
Odds sourced on Tuesday, February 1 at 6 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm.
FADES
Ryan Palmer … This will challenge his proven formula of extending confidence with his long game across multiple weeks. You could think of him as streaky, but he has too many other strong performances to pigeon-hole him as a one-trick pony. However, unlike sites like Waialae (T12) and Torrey Pines (T16), where he’s recorded numerous top 25s at each, he’s managed only one in 13 tries at Pebble Beach, and that was in 2006. It’s likely that his power and precision off the tee is neutralized on three tracks averaging about 7,000 yards.
Brendon Todd … He profiles similarly to Matt Kuchar, but Todd’s irons are more inconsistent. Since his inspiring rise from the ashes, he’s regressed again. It’d be unfair to assign this caution on going 0-for-3 in this tournament from 2016-2019, but his recent form isn’t strong enough to warrant ignoring it, either.
Patrick Rodgers … Not all Stanford products thrive in this event. He debuted with a T8 in 2018, but has since missed the cut in all three return trips. He opened this season with a couple of leaderboard appearances, but has since failed to resonate. Still a non-winner in 195 PGA TOUR starts as a professional, he belongs on a roster in deeper formats, but gamers wonder for how much longer they can hold their collective breath for the breakthrough. That said, he won’t turn 30 until the last day of June, so hang in there.
J.J. Spaun … The 31-year-old is off to a nice start this season with eight paydays in 10 starts. He’s 45th in the FedExCup. However, something will give at Pebble Beach this week because he missed the cut in all four of his prior trips. This positions him furtively as a contrarian in fractional DFS plays.
Brandon Wu … Not to pile on the Cardinal, but the rookie has been taking his lumps, and then some. He’s just 1-for-8 on the season. No one ever can take away his pedigree, but he’s likely been a popular wrong end of drop-adds in league that allow them. Now, he delivered a T38 as a Sleeper in this event in his only prior appearance in 2020, and he finished T35 at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach (after which he was handed his college diploma), so there are reasons to be hopeful, but the conservative in me can’t take that bandwagon for a ride.
Stewart Cink
Mackenzie Hughes
Keith Mitchell
Ryan Moore
Ted Potter, Jr.
RETURNING TO COMPETITION
Charley Hoffman … Fourth time’s the charm? It’s one thing to exit early with a sore back, as he did before Houston in November, but to commit and withdraw early from two more tournaments two months later is odd, if not concerning, and especially since he had to sit out the Farmers in his hometown. As of Tuesday, he’s still in the field at Pebble Beach where he’d be making his 14th appearance, but the only situation in which he’s worth investing is to take his opponent in a matchup.
NOTABLE WDs
Will Zalatoris … Tested positive for COVID-19.
Hank Lebioda … This is his second early WD of the season (Sanderson Farms), but this is the first time he’s taking a pass on the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in his fourth season on TOUR. Currently T150 in the FedExCup with just one top-45 finish (T15, Houston) among three cuts made in nine starts.
Cameron Young … While it’s unusual for any rookie to sit out any opportunity to play on the West Coast Swing, he’s comfortably positioned at 34th in the FedExCup. It’s possible that that has opened at least one door in an event in the near-term. If true, and having played in each of the last three weeks, he’s earned the timely break.
John Huh … Second consecutive week he’s pulled out before the tournament started. Last week, he withdrew on the Wednesday morning of the first round at Torrey Pines.
David Lingmerth … Opting for The Panama Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour. Previous AT&T alternates Fabián Gómez and Michael Kim are in the same field in Central America. All three are on Past Champion status on the PGA TOUR this season. To each his own, but back in the 2013-14 season, Gómez elected to focus on the KFT to regain his TOUR card instead of juggling conditional status. It paid off with victories on TOUR in 2015 and 2016. He’s 43 years old now, so that path previously traveled might be more challenging.
RECAP – FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN
POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Jon Rahm T3
2 Hideki Matsuyama T30
3 Xander Schauffele T34
4 Patrick Reed T46
5 Marc Leishman T16
6 Sam Burns MC
7 Will Zalatoris P2
8 Francesco Molinari T62
9 Ryan Palmer T16
10 Justin Thomas T20
11 Max Homa MC
12 Tony Finau MC
13 Bryson DeChambeau MC
14 Justin Rose T6
15 Lanto Griffin T30
Wild Card Scottie Scheffler T20
SLEEPERS
Golfer (Prop) Result
Joseph Bramlett (top 20) T67
Wyndham Clark (top 20) T56
Cam Davis (top 20) T56
Luke List (top 20) Win
J.J. Spaun (top 20) T34
GOLFBET
Bet, Result
Francesco Molinari – Top 20 (+330) T62
BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR
February 1 … David Skinns (40)
February 2 … none
February 3 … Heath Slocum (48); Chris Stroud (40)
February 4 … none
February 5 … Kevin Stadler (42)
February 6 … Ricky Barnes (41); Collin Morikawa (25)
February 7 … none