Don’t give up on Jon Rahm yet at Torrey Pines

Jon Rahm can still win the Farmers Insurance Open from nine shots back.

While it’s true the superstar who won his last two PGA TOUR starts has given the field a huge head start following his 1-over, 73 in Wednesday’s opening round, the fact remains this tournament is still there for the Spaniard to win.

Rahm played the more difficult Torrey Pines South in the opening round. The beast with almost U.S. Open like rough after recent rain in Southern California gave it an even healthier thickness.

But most of the scoring on Wednesday came on the North Course where Rahm heads Thursday. Once 36 holes are complete, the top 65 and ties make the cut for the final two rounds back on the South.

On the South, the scoring average was 72.218. Those playing were a cumulative 17-over. The back nine played 70-over!

Over on the North course, where Sam Ryder, Aaron Rai and Brent Grant all shot 8-under 64s to share the lead, the scoring average was 69.731. Those on North were 177-under as a group.

Of the 11 players shooting 6-under or better, only Sam Stevens and Andrew Novak did so on the South. A total of 91 players shot under par on Wednesday, just 35 of them were on the South.

In short, Rahm wasn’t that far off the average score at the South and he gets to head out on the North course in Thursday’s second round. The latest forecast has higher winds coming in Thursday making the South an even tougher prospect for those about to tackle it for the first time this week.

Rahm lost -1.455 strokes on approach shots during his round, something you won’t often see from the man who won his lone major, the 2021 U.S. Open, at Torrey Pines. (With Strokes Gained Stats only measured on the South Course we won’t get a full readout till through two rounds.)

“The main thing on the round today, with the (good) tee shots I hit on six, seven, 12 and 13, I was three over par (after poor approach shots). In any other given round that I've played here in the past, I'm actually playing that at least even par to under par, so it's easily a three- to five-shot swing and that's the difference,” Rahm lamented on his approach errors.

On the flipside, he ranked seventh of those playing the South Course in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. This is a good sign as those who keep it in play off the tee will grind their way to the top as the tournament continues. You wouldn’t bank on Rahm making the same errors again.

Oh, and there’s precedent with Jason Day (twice) and Brandt Snedeker winning the event from the same start.

In 2015 Day opened with a 73 on the South and sat nine shots back, while he mirrored his start in 2018 but was eight back before rallying to win both tournaments. In 2016 Snedeker started with a 73 on the South and was seven off the pace before turning it all around.

Traditionally a 69 on the South is better than a 66 on the North… but you have to back it up of course! Day backed up his openers with a 65 on North in 2015 and a 64 in 2018. Snedeker only needed a 70 during a windy and wild weather 2016 tournament. Rahm knows he must make inroads on Thursday.

It is the reasons above why Rahm – who opened as a +450 favorite – only has five players above him on the betting boards at BetMGM Sportsbook with three rounds to play. Rahm is now +2000 to make it three TOUR wins in a row.

If you were wondering why Ryder (+4000) and Grant (+10000) were still sitting at juicy odds, now you know it’s not just because they haven’t won on TOUR. They are also yet to take on the South.

Justin Thomas and Taylor Montgomery are the new favorites at +800 having both successfully navigated the South Course in four and five under respectively.

Sungjae Im is +1000 after his 4-under 68 on the South Course while the only North Course players above Rahm on the betting board are Collin Morikawa (+1200) and Will Zalatoris (+1800).

Morikawa is looking to rebound from his recent collapse at the Sentry Tournament of Champions that helped Rahm to the first of his back-to-back wins. Rahm came from eight back with 17 holes to play that week. Morikawa’s 5-under 67 on the North was a good start towards retribution.

Zalatoris lost in a playoff against Luke List a year ago at Torrey Pines after having a putt to win it on the 72nd hole. He carded a 4-under 68 on the North to be four off the pace. Incidentally List is +5000 after a 67 on the North.

The bottom line, if you give up on Rahm early, it could be your peril.