May 20, 2022

History favors Will Zalatoris victory at PGA Championship

4 Min Read

History favors Will Zalatoris victory at PGA Championship

TULSA, Okla. – If history repeats, then this PGA Championship is over and Will Zalatoris will finish as champion.

The young Texan has forced his way atop the leaderboard at Southern Hills through 36 holes after rounds of 66-65 left him 9-under for the tournament, one clear of Mito Pereira and three in front of former PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas.

While 36 nerve-wracking holes remain, Zalatoris can take huge comfort in an incredible piece of Southern Hills history. In all seven previous majors held at Southern Hills, the winner had at least a share of the lead at the 36- and 54-hole mark.

Tommy Bolt (1958 U.S. Open), Dave Stockton (1970 PGA), Hubert Green (1977 U.S. Open),
Raymond Floyd (1982 PGA), Nick Price (1994 PGA), Retief Goosen 2001 U.S. Open) and Tiger Woods (2007 PGA) all sat in the same spot Zalatoris finds himself in.

Zalatoris tied the third-best opening 36-hole score (131) in PGA Championship history behind Brooks Koepka (128 in 2019) and Gary Woodland (130 in 2018). He already has four top-10 major finishes from his last six previous majors.

Despite having not yet recorded a PGA TOUR win, BetMGM Sports Book favors the historic trend, listing Zalatoris the favorite at +225 heading into the weekend. Perhaps the fact he leads the field in Strokes Gained: Putting (+6.180) is a better indicator of their confidence.

“I've got a long 36 holes ahead of me. I think if anything, you're able to plot your way around this golf course, and if you hit as many greens as you possibly can, it's kind of hard to mess it up,” Zalatoris said when asked if the past results at Southern Hills give him confidence.

“You still can mess it up if you get on the wrong slopes. It still has a little bit of the attitude of like Augusta where you can hit 18 greens and walk off that place and shoot 80.

“But history to me, it is what it is … I'm going to go out and do my job, and hopefully it's enough at the end.”

Pereira, Thomas and others will be looking to smash history.

Thomas is next on the line at BetMGM at +350, with the 2017 champion from Quail Hollow seeking his second major. Playing on the much tougher side of the draw over the opening two rounds, Thomas remains very confident.

“I feel like I'm playing well,” Thomas said. “We're halfway through, so it's still a long way from home, but I'm very, very pleased with where everything is at and the frame of mind and state of mind that I'm in.

“Just need to try to maintain that the best that I can and keep trying to play good golf.”

Pereira, like Zalatoris, has yet to win on the PGA TOUR. But he knows how to win, having earned his place on TOUR via a Three-Victory Promotion on the 2020-21 Korn Ferry Tour. The Chilean sits at +550 to make a major his maiden breakthrough after a scintillating Friday 64.

“The conditions are going to change a little bit,” Pereira said. “The wind is going to change. Going to be a little bit colder. I think I'll just try to do the same I've been doing.

“Been hitting the ball really well, so that's a real strength coming up to the weekend.”

Despite sitting five shots back, first-round leader Rory McIlroy is next in the betting lines at +800 while Bubba Watson’s incredible 7-under 63 on Friday leaves him a +2000 shot, just four off the lead.

Watson equaled the PGA Championship scoring record, becoming the 17th player (18th instance) to perform the feat. It was the third 63 at Southern Hills (Raymond Floyd, 1982; Tiger Woods, 2007) and included nine birdies, the most in a round in his major championship career (182 rounds).

The two-time Masters champion wasn’t focused on the accolade, though.

“I could shoot 80-80 (on the weekend) and I could care less what I did on Friday,” he said. “It's very nice. Don't get me wrong. It's an honor to be able to shoot 63 on any golf course. I'll take it. But I've got to look forward to tomorrow and see where I'm at and hit hopefully just as quality shots as I did today.”

Joining McIlroy five shots back are Abraham Ancer (+2500) and Davis Riley (+3500), while Stewart Cink (+8000) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+2500) need to make up six shots. PLAYERS champion Cameron Smith (+2200) sits on the sixth line of betting despite being seven shots adrift of the lead.

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