Pick 'Em Preview: RBC Heritage

In his Draws and Fades for the RBC Heritage on Tuesday, Rob detailed how the champion of PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live for the Masters, Pault27, got the job done.

It was an exercise in elegant simplicity. Make three picks – yes, only three! – and nail ‘em. Just like that, a deposit for $2,500 is processing.

At the conclusion of the tournament, 10,356 entries were counted. No, not all were in by the first tee ball on a delayed opening round on Thursday, but you don’t have to be to have success. And no, it’s not easy to finish inside the top five, but it sure isn’t as hard as you think it is. Play often enough and you just might experience it. Remember, Rob himself already has placed third (Honda) and 10th (PLAYERS). If he can do it…

Glass came out on top of our tandem in the first major of the year, so he’s regained bragging rights. He has the first swing at Harbour Town. Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor Rob’s and Glass’ progress as Influencers.

For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here.

Before you dive into the advice and banter, please be advised that PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live will be in play for next week’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

WEEKLONG

Outright

Glass … Denny McCarthy (+10000)

From the leadoff spot, I'll remind gamers that this pick SHOULD BE a longshot! It's the beauty of this game. So, like golf itself, use the rules to your advantage!

Harbour Town produced first-time TOUR winners in the last four editions before the pandemic. McCarthy has cashed in five straight and eight of nine on the PGA TOUR, and it's not lost on me that his best result was at Pete Dye's Stadium Course at PGA WEST. The short game stands up and he's more than accurate off the tee. T33 in spring of 2019 was followed by T13 in spring of 2021, so he's moving in the right direction here.

Go big! There's no downside! Check the pre-tournament odds from past winners in Horses for Courses just in case.

Rob … Shane Lowry (+2000)

I'm simplifying after last week's thumping (because Glass connected for one 2-ball on Sunday). As noted here most weeks, I agree with his strategy for the opening value play that's supported by our ongoing power to make in-tournament changes, but I'll counter with the No. 1 in my Power Rankings.

The best thing about Lowry not winning lately is that he's still chasing that rabbit. He's doing everything well and in deep fields no less. He's also been loyal to the RBC Heritage where he has a pair of top 10s, so there's nothing foreign to him on the property. He's a proper fit for the track.

Another reason why I'm launching in at short odds is because the field is thick, so someone in his vicinity likely will prevail. I'll be on board with a big, crooked number when Glass is hoping to get plus odds at the turn on Sunday.

Top 10

Rob … Beau Hossler (+1100)

Here's where I'll cannonball into the deep end because odds will remain reasonable when the 36-hole cut falls. If you've been monitoring the same over time, you know.

The 27-year-old has been terrific since a solo third at Pebble Beach. He's added three top 20s, including a T4 two weeks ago at TPC San Antonio.

Best of all, he's playing on house money, er, FedExCup points. Saddled with conditional status, he's currently 50th and headed back to the Playoffs. The confidence of his recent form sharpens the singular focus of winning on the PGA TOUR for the first time, but I don’t need that for these coins.

Glass … Troy Merritt (+725)

I like heat and love a bit of Horse for Course and he lines up quite nicely.

Similar to THE HOSS, Merritt finished one shot behind the former Longhorn at Pebble Beach on the smallest greens on TOUR.

Similar to THE HOSS, Merritt finished T4 last time out at Valero.

Merritt arrives on six of seven, and his last four are trending in the proper direction.

I guess I'm paying a premium for solo third in 2015, which included tying the course record of 61, and a T10 in 2019. Hell, maybe we'll just tie!

Top 20

Rob … Danny Willett (+550)

His class should be permanent, but there he is lounging outside the perimeter of the notables. It's baffling, so we might as well exploit it.

Yes, he finished T12 at the Masters and T18 at last year's RBC Heritage, so the obviousness of those results would suggest converging trends, but there's nothing trendy about it, which, again, is why he's available with that inflated kickback.

I target this value at the cut line, anyway, but it might be more difficult to find at that time given the talent in play.

Glass … Ben Martin (+1100)

We all saw how tough it was not to close the deal at Corales (T2) on the final hole. The South Carolina native regrouped and made the cut the following week. That showed me all that I needed to know.

He cashed five of seven here, including a T3 back in 2014. Receiving a sponsor exemption in his backyard should have this former Clemson Tiger ready to repay the faith in the locals.

As we've learned in this game, changing Top 10 and Top 20 markets isn't guaranteed but we've also learned nothing ventured, nothing gained. Oh, and perfect games are for baseball!

Fortune favors the bold! Or something…

R1

Leader

Rob … Kevin Streelman (+6600)

What Glass is trying to say is that fortune favors the Bolton. He can thank me later; I’ll be here all week.

Harbour Town is a par 71 with three par 5s, two of which on the outward nine, but each side is balanced in the aggregate. So, if you wanted to be persnickety about momentum, open with a morning waver going off 1. That's my play.

Streels brings big stick energy to the Lowcountry. He beat par in his most recent eight rounds (on Copperhead and TPC San Antonio) and he's been terrific in this tournament time and again. And yes, he's goes off 1 on Thursday at 7:21 a.m. ET.

Glass … Tom Hoge (+6600)

R1 scores

65 = RSM

66 = Sony

65 = Amex

63 = Pebble Beach

66 = THE PLAYERS

Career year has been buoyed by fast starts. I'm on board with Rob – earlier is better because you have all day to, ahem, correct any errors made with early tee times!

Hoge is off No. 10 at 8:05 a.m. ET, but we hardly live in a perfect world.

Make the Cut

Glass … Matt Kuchar (-250)

It's 17 straight at Harbour Town, and he's found form with T16 at Valspar backed with T2 at Valero. Didn't have the grind of Augusta on his bones, either, but I bet he was a bit salty not to be invited. I could have used KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCH in a few of these categories this week!

Rob … Alex Noren (-250)

One word per coin for how many this rewards – 10.

3-Ball

Glass … Corey Conners (+140) over Daniel Berger and Mackenzie Hughes

Conners has sat in second place after 36 holes in the last two editions, so he's used to getting off to hot starts here. Working the golf ball isn't his problem; neither his form after another top 10 at the Masters that backed up a solo third at the Match Play.

Berger hasn't bounced back since his Honda Sunday struggle, and Hughes hasn't posted lower than 70 in the first round in seven events in 2022.

Rob … Russell Henley (-120) over Henrik Norlander and Stephan Jaeger

To my trained eye, and no doubt to the same among hardcore fans, you know a mismatch when you see it, even when we’re considering only one round.

Henley has seven straight rounds under par at Harbour Town. He placed T9 here last year. He’s 13-for-13 this season, sits 21st in the FedExCup and ranks third in first-round scoring with an average of 67.75!

Norlander has limited experience in this tournament (72-74=MC last year). He’s 130th in the FedExCup and T126 in R1 scoring (70.47). Jaeger has failed to capitalize on his status north of the Korn Ferry Tour graduate reshuffle category and arrives for his debut at Harbour Town slotted 160th in the FedExCup. He’s T124 in R1 scoring (70.44), and that’s easily his best among all rounds.