Pick 'Em Preview: Valero Texas Open

PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live gets back after it for this week’s Valero Texas Open.

There’s been no shortage of intriguing possibilities since it debuted at The Genesis Invitational, but it hadn’t covered as many bases until the Valspar Championship, the last tournament contributing to the weekly fun and fortune.

R2 and R3 leaders were among the props, as were a trio of R3 3-balls, so there were, count ‘em, four chances to collect coins in that round at Copperhead. It was a surprise bonus.

That’s been part of the experience. You just never know what’s going to emerge on the board. For example, recall that Rob pounced on Alex Noren at +900 for a Top 20 at The Honda Classic when the Swede was T7 after three rounds. That’s hard to find from a stud pre-tournament, much less that late into any.

If you’re new to Pick ‘Em Preview, Rob and Glass not only identify and explain their opening picks, but they also regularly educate you on the strategies for many. Rob also has dived even deeper in the opening of his Draws and Fades to recap his experience from the week prior. If you wonder if that’s worth reading, consider that he’s already logged a third (Honda) and a 10th (PLAYERS) in the first five events.

Register for PGA TOUR Pick ‘Em Live here and monitor Rob’s and Glass’ progress as Influencers.

For a broader explanation of the format and FAQs, click here.

WEEKLONG

Outright

Rob … Matt Kuchar (+8000)

First of all, it's good to be leading off again. Glass and I have evolved into granting the winner of the last hole, er, tournament, the honor of kicking off the next round. I cruised to victory at the Valspar Championship, so I get to set the tone.

The Valero Texas Open has the vibe that an outsider will prevail. This has everything to do with the competitive balance yielded by TPC San Antonio. However, even though we possess the power to change our pick pretty much at any time, I'm starting with Kuchar because there isn't a longer shot that jumps off the app.

Perfect in nine tries with five top 15s, fresh off a T16 at Copperhead, precise off the tee and still a wizard greenside, the kicker is his low ball flight in the Texas twisters. He's also my Wild Card in Draws & Fades.

Glass … Charley Hoffman (+7500)

Big ups to Rob for mopping the floor with me again! The pain and suffering has subsided, but I'm still groggy.

I'm going to follow the legend down the veteran trail this week with THE MAYOR OF SAN ANTONIO. If there's going to be one place where Hoffman puts it all together, it's surely here. If not, no sweat, I can pull the ol' SWITCHEROO as events develop. He played the final 54 holes here in 19-under last year and 16-under in 2019 to pick up a pair of solo seconds.

Riding the Horses for Courses #Brand this week. Until I'm not.

Top 10

Rob … Henrik Stenson (+1800)

In full disclosure, I did NOT expect to belly up to the tall drink of water, BUT there's zero risk in opening with a longshot in Pick 'Em Live; well, as long as the bet reopens during the tournament. (It has every week, but the timing is unpredictable.)

Before you throw things at what you think is my insanity, here me out. There are two reasons why I'm on board:

1) He's Henrik Stenson. Compared to a rookie or a rank-and-filer or a journeyman, I'll take his career record in a short-term situation like this.

2) Yes, he finished a forgettable T57 at Copperhead, but it was because of his putter. The Devil's Advocate in the details is that he led the field in fairways hit and averaged 13 greens in regulation per round (to rank T7). That’ll work here.

Glass … Brendan Steele (+650)

"As long as the bet reopens during the tournament," he said...

Timing the market is never easy, so I'm riding Steele in case I don't catch the window. I'd prefer a deeper play but I'll ride the more conservative rail here.

Steele has packed some recent heat – T26 at Bay Hill and a T13 at TPC Sawgrass in last two starts – with a dabble of veteran patience and a splash of Horse for Course. He's cashed 9 of 10 here, he’s the 2011 winner and he’s played in six straight weekends on the Oaks Course. The only sleep I'll lose will be from Steele forgetting how much he loves this place.

Top 20

Glass … Kramer Hickok (+450)

When in Texas!

Well, that might not be the saying but he won't have to talk me into handling the wind or the greens in his native state. He rolls in on a lovely #Trend of T13-T33-T42 and won't be intimidated by the windy conditions. Closed with 66 in the breeze in the Dominican Republic last week and was solo fourth last fall at Memorial Park in Houston. He's had two chances here and the third should be the charm.

Rob … Jim Herman (+900)

This feels like a Jim Herman kind of week, doesn't it? After all, wouldn't you have wanted to be on board for any of his out-of-nowhere PGA TOUR titles. (Speaking of which, Scottie Scheffler finally has caught up with three of his own!)

While Herman slots sixth in fairways hit and 35th in GIR, this isn't the script of a lost episode of "Herman's Head." He's entirely a reflection of our hope and our heart.

Oh, and hey, he finished T18 at TPC San Antonio "only" five years ago, and he just posted a T7 in Puerto Rico.

Remember, gang, if you spend enough time looking, you always can find data to support your narrative. The best part is that the result doesn't care. You still might strike gold (coins).

R1

Leader

Glass … Jhonattan Vegas (+5000)

Penchant for starting things off on the correct, hot foot as shown by opening 64s at Valspar and RSM in his last eight events.

As Rob will have the numbers to back up, the Oaks Course inward nine plays TREMENDOUSLY easier than the front side. I'm going with an early bird off No. 10 tee. Getting off to a quick, hot start and grinding some pars on the way in is easier than having to chase it down. As Ben Everill would remind us, the former Texas Longhorn is playing for a Presidents Cup spot and his T4 at Corales should have him brimming with juice to get started.

Rob … Ryan Palmer (+6600)

The only way that Glass is going to beat me is if he looks over my shoulder and cheats. This is evidence, but it’s also smart. Indeed, I also was targeting early starters going off 10.

Nos. 10-18 at TPC San Antonio typically average 0.5-1.0 strokes easier than Nos. 1-9, and both are stock par 36s. It's projected to be very cool early in the morning, so I don't want my early starter going off the first hole, which not only has been the hardest hole on the course, but it's also one of the hardest par 4s on any course all season. (It doesn’t hurt that the last two FRLs of the VTO went off 10. Si Woo Kim went out in the morning in 2019; Camilo Villegas opened in the afternoon wave last year.)

Of course, not that this is my first rodeo, but Glass was the first to mention it, so he deserves the hat tip because it's relevant. My Texan, Palmer, hasn't missed an edition of this tournament on this track and he's logged three top 10s among five top 20s, so he's comfy.

Make the Cut

Rob … Martin Laird (-175)

Always, always, always keep this simple, silly. Connecting on this line yields only 14 coins, and he's tied for the longest odds available. You're not going to feel failure, so just take the shot.

Laird is a former winner here (2013) and he's missed the cut only once in eight appearances. His success, his familiarity and his pedigree as a Scot in the wind is more than enough evidence to support the potential for this tiny kickback.

Glass … Matt Kuchar (-190)

Something about imitation and flattery fits here, right, Rob?

I'll see your five consecutive cuts made and raise you to nine. Kuchar's recent form, as you pointed out above, is a shade better. Laird also cashed at Bay Hill where he was a former winner as well, so I'm picking up what yer puttin' down.

3-Ball

Glass … Maverick McNealy (+100) over Lee Westwood and Kelly Kraft

Knocked out the Match Play in a playoff by Kevin Na and excels on courses with difficult greens to hit (Pebble Beach, Harbour Town). Cashing in last 11 events doesn't scare me off and his best finish was at Riviera (T7), the track with the only greens more difficult to hit than the Oaks Course annually.

Kraft has made only two cuts from eight events in 2022, and Westwood's best finish this season on U.S. soil was a T42 when scoring 72 holes.

Rob … Patton Kizzire (+130) over C.T. Pan and J.T. Poston

If word gets out that I’m on the Kizzire or Bust bandwagon, so be it.

If he was going off 10 instead of 1 in the morning, he’d be my R1 leader, just as I lined up him at Valspar where he opened with 69. He didn’t pay off the spiff at Copperhead, but it was his 11th sub-70 of 14 opening rounds this season, all of which have been par or better.

Kizzire ranks T3 on the PGA TOUR in early R1 scoring (with an average of 67 in seven rounds) and he’s eighth in R1 scoring overall. The Brothers Initials are a respective T57/107th (Pan) and 79th/T170 (Poston).

On an aside, my R1 leader, Palmer, also would serve well slotted in the same threesome with Rickie Fowler and Ryan Brehm.