Sleeper Picks: 3M Open

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Pierceson Coody (+10000) … Well, isn’t this a nice surprise! Seriously, that value looks and feels like an error. He should be maybe half that given the fact that he’s rested since the playoff loss at the ISCO Championship and, well, his trajectory in the long- and short-range. During his wildly successful tenure at the University of Texas during which he was a national champion in 2022, he scaled to No. 1 in the World Amateur Golf Ranking. He also won thrice on the Korn Ferry Tour, including within a month after turning professional, also in 2022. Now as a rookie on the PGA TOUR, he’s shed the ails of the early season with a 6-for-6 flourish upon arrival for his debut at the 3M Open. It includes a pair of top fives. He’s also third on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting. Suffice it to say that this kind of kickback for the talented 24-year-old won’t last for long.

Top 5

Tom Hoge (+750) … If he prevailed, it wouldn’t be quite like Robert MacIntyre taking the title at the Genesis Scottish Open, but it’d be close. These are his climes and these are his people. North Dakota’s very own PGA TOUR member recorded a T4 at the 3M Open in 2022, so it wouldn’t even be unprecedented, but he’s the guy you target if you’re going to reach. He’s lights out on approach and as reliable as anyone when it comes to signing for red numbers as he has a TOUR-high 53 times this season. He’s also only one month removed from his last top five, that a T3 at the Travelers Championship where he signed for respective scores of 69, 63, 66 and 62.

Top 10

Kevin Yu (+550) … The PGA TOUR sophomore has unfinished business at TPC Twin Cities. In his debut last year, he sat T11 after three rounds before backpedaling into a T37 at the finish line. It was his fifth start after returning from surgery on his left knee and he already had hung up a top 10 at the John Deere Classic, but it represented the last life in his game until this season. Since a T3 at The American Express, he’s scattered four top 10s (and a T20 at the John Deere), so there’s been plenty of mojo to support devoting at least a fraction of a unit for a fifth this week. He’s inside the top 10 on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, greens in regulation, proximity to the hole and SG: Tee-to-Green, so he should have zero issues in fulfilling the first of the two-step formula in the shootout.

Top 20

Patton Kizzire (+400) … After his rally in the FedExCup Fall came up short, he’s had a hit-and-miss 2024, but there have been many more hits of late, so that explains a somewhat muted kickback for this finish. Lest this analysis also fails to acknowledge that he’s not a traditional Sleeper in that he’s fresh off a T8 at the Barracuda Championship, but he still deserves the endorsement what with three top 20s in his last six starts. He’s also pegged it in every edition of the 3M Open, albeit leaving town after each without a top 30 to show, but the experience still plays up as his game is sharp. Currently third on the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation, third in proximity and T3 in par-4 scoring.

Top 40

Ben Warian (+450) … In the magical summer that introduces us to shiny, new toys, he’s still an amateur even though he’s just wrapped his collegiate career at the University of Minnesota. A strong season yielded All-Big Ten Second Team honors but the local lefty’s play of late is what inspires the faith in his PGA TOUR debut. In mid-June, he captured victory at the Sunnehanna Amateur, a distinguished event at which notables such as Lucas Glover (2001), Webb Simpson (2006), Rickie Fowler (2007, 2008) and Collin Morikawa (2016) all prevailed. Warian also advanced to the semifinals of the North & South Amateur Match Play two weeks later. For some comparison, Ian Gilligan, who placed T40 at last week’s Barracuda Championship, was eliminated in the quarterfinals.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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