Stats that explain Scottie Scheffler’s dominance at WM Phoenix Open

Scottie Scheffler returns to the raucous but friendly confines of TPC Scottsdale hoping to make history. He could become the first golfer to win a PGA TOUR tournament in three consecutive seasons since Steve Stricker, 2009-2011 John Deere Classic. Arnold Palmer was the last to do it at the WM Phoenix Open more than 60 years ago (1961-63).

If there’s someone to make history, it’s Scheffler. His victories at the WM Phoenix Open provide a throughline through his remarkable ascent to the top of professional golf. Scheffler’s victory at the 2022 WM Phoenix Open was his breakthrough moment, winning in a playoff over Patrick Cantlay and exorcising the close calls of the year before. His win in 2023 reaffirmed that the previous year wasn’t a fluke – that the Scheffler era was here. In the span of 24 months, he picked up an additional four wins, including his first major championship at the 2022 Masters and a victory at THE PLAYERS Championship last year. A three-peat at the WM Phoenix Open would be the latest signal of Scheffler’s preeminence.

So what has Scheffler done particularly well the last two years to put him on the precipice of history? As his three-peat attempt looms, here’s a look at the stats that explain Scheffler’s dominance at TPC Scottsdale.

The putter comes to play

While the general premise may be unsurprising, Scheffler’s proficiency on the TPC Scottsdale greens, and the contrast to his season averages, were among the biggest factors in his back-to-back victories.

His performance in relation to the field is notable — Scheffler ranked second in Strokes Gained: Putting at the 2022 WM Phoenix Open and 13th in 2023 — but his performance in relation to his own standards is a more significant part of the story. For much of the last two years, Scheffler has succeeded despite his putting. He has racked up six PGA TOUR victories, spent more than a year as the world's No. 1 golfer, and won back-to-back Jack Nicklaus Player of the Year awards. Yet somehow, Scheffler has seemingly underachieved relative to his talent, largely thanks to his consistent struggles on the greens.

Scheffler’s wins at the WM Phoenix Open showed how dominant he can look when he finds his feel with the putter.

Scheffler’s 2022 performance at TPC Scottsdale was his best statistical putting week of the season. Scheffler did not finish inside the top 15 in any other 2022 Full-Field Events. His 2023 performance was his second-best performance of last season. Scheffler wasn’t riding a hot putter either week. In both instances, he lost strokes putting in his previous start before turning it on in Arizona.

The underlying metrics that led to both standout performances vary slightly. In 2023, Scheffler was rock-solid from within 10 feet, an area that had otherwise given him trouble. He missed just one putt inside 5 feet and made 62 of 65 putts from inside 10 feet. He made nearly 30% more putts from 4 to 8 feet than his season average, a key to his zero three putts that week.

Scheffler’s stellar showing in 2022 was much more diverse. He led the field in putting average (1.67), making 51 of 52 putts from inside 5 feet. His mid-range putting was a bit more spotty, but he made six putts outside 20 feet, including the 25-foot birdie he sunk on the third playoff hole to beat Cantlay.

His putting was also a critical piece of the other area Scheffler has used to separate himself from the field.

Par-4 excellence

While Scheffler’s performance on par 3s and par 5s has varied, his par-4 scoring has remained the driver of his success. He led the field at the WM Phoenix Open in par-4 scoring average in 2022 and 2023. He was 12-under on the par 4s in 2022 and 15-under in 2023, while the field average was over par each year.

His elite ball-striking was the baseline for par-4 success all season, particularly at the WM Phoenix Open. Scheffler led the field in par-4 greens in regulation percentage by a considerable margin. Scheffler hit a remarkable 79.5% of his greens in 2023 while the field hit only 58.7%, a difference of more than 20%. The margin was smaller in 2022, but his advantage remained.

In conjunction with hitting more greens, Scheffler also hit it closer than the field average.

His average birdie attempt was 18 ½ feet in 2023, while the field’s average was just over 24 feet. More than half of Scheffler’s birdie opportunities — 54%, to be exact — came with 15 feet. The field average was just 30%.

From there it circled back to converting those opportunities with the putter. Scheffler has never failed to give himself plenty of birdie chances at the WM Phoenix Open or any other PGA TOUR stop. While he’s struggled to convert at some venues, TPC Scottsdale has become a haven for his putter. That’s how the story of Scheffler’s unflappable performances takes shape. Scheffler blew the field away in Par-4 Birdie Conversion. He made more than 50% of his birdie opportunities in 2022 and 40% in 2023, while the field averaged 23% in both years.

In 2022, he outperformed the field, and himself, from every distance on the greens.. He made 100% of his birdie putts from inside 5 feet, 83% from 5 to 10 feet, 67% from 11 to 15 feet and 80% from 21 to 25 feet. It was a remarkable performance from Scheffler, who consistently capitalized on his opportunities, regardless of how close he hit his approach shots.

To distill it down, that’s how Scheffler has won the WM Phoenix in back-to-back years. Nobody has been better at capitalizing on their opportunities with complementary golf. There has been no wasted performance. No historic ball-striking week was ruined by poor putting or vice versa.

In 2023, Scheffler amassed his best SG: Approach output of any of the Signature Events and married it with a solid putting week. In 2022, his putting set the table for his success.

As Scheffler returns to TPC Scottsdale looking for a three-peat, he must conjure that complementary golf he has yet to find. Although the sample size is small, Scheffler is fifth in SG: Approach and fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green this season. He ranks T117 in Putting.

TPC Scottsdale is where Scheffler has gone to get right. It started his reign of dominance in 2022 and catapulted him to a historic 2023.

What’s in store for 2024?