Key probabilities for players on the bubble during FedExCup Fall

The multi-tiered points race generated by the FedExCup Fall series is giving golf fans several interesting storylines to follow in the weeks ahead.

Most significantly, there’s the race to finish in the top 125 to ensure securing a PGA TOUR card for the 2024 season. Twelve players are currently less than 100 points behind the final spot, held currently by Erik van Rooyen. With three events to go, there’s plenty of time left for movement. For perspective, Beau Hossler’s T2 finish last week at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP netted him an incredibly valuable 245 points.

That solidified Hossler into the 51-60 category, another coveted distinction this fall. Players who finish in the top 10 of the FedExCup Fall points race earn spots in both the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational, part of the TOUR’s collection of Signature Events in 2024.

Twenty First Group ran thousands of simulations of the last three FedExCup Fall events – the World Wide Technology Championship, Butterfield Bermuda Championship and The RSM Classic – to generate probabilities of where players on those two bubbles could end up. Some prominent names have plenty to play for between now and Thanksgiving.

Mackenzie Hughes

Current FedExCup Fall position: 57

Fall 51-60 probability: 68.7%

The winner of the 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship, Hughes is in a unique points position worth exploring. Hughes’ win last October in Mississippi accounts for more than half of his total points for the season, largely responsible for pushing him into contention for the 51-60 spot. But the fact that his win came in the 2022 calendar year – and not 2023 – means he’s still fighting for a tee time at Pebble Beach in the first place.

Hughes does not have a top-20 finish since May, but still has friendly hunting grounds on the horizon in The RSM Classic. Sea Island, Georgia, is the site of his first career PGA TOUR win (2016) and a runner-up finish just two years ago.

Thomas Detry

Current FedExCup Fall position: 60

Fall 51-60 probability: 36.2%

Detry was one of the stars of last fall, picking up four top-15 finishes in five starts. To keep his 51-60 spot, he’s going to need another similar strong run of form, as he currently teeters on the final spot for Pebble Beach and Genesis qualification. The next two stops on the schedule should help: In the last two years at the World Wide Technology Championship and Butterfield Bermuda Championship, Detry has finished in the top 25 in all four starts, posting a combined score to par of 52 under.

Keith Mitchell

Current FedExCup Fall position: 68

Fall 51-60 probability: 11.0%

Perhaps no player jostling for one of the top-10 spots in the FedExCup Fall series would benefit more from it than Mitchell. After all, he played some of his best golf all year at those two events: a tie for fourth at Pebble Beach, followed two weeks later by another top-5 result at Riviera.

The bad news is Mitchell is currently on the outside looking in, and two of the remaining courses on the schedule don’t necessarily fit Keith’s strengths. Mitchell is one of the best drivers of the ball on TOUR, ranked in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee for the fourth time in the last six seasons.

Port Royal Golf Course, home of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, is the shortest all season on the PGA TOUR, lessening the advantage Mitchell gains with driver. And winners at The RSM Classic gain just 10.9% of their Strokes Gained: Total on shots off the tee – one of the lowest rates on TOUR. It’s an uphill climb ahead, but one Mitchell can make.

Doug Ghim

Current FedExCup Fall position: 123

Top-125 probability: 71.0%

Exempt status: Top 125 in 2021-22 FedExCup Playoffs and Eligibility Points List (through 2022-23)

Back-to-back missed cuts at the Sanderson Farms Championship and Shriners Children’s Open have pushed Ghim to a slightly more precarious bubble position with three tournaments to go. The University of Texas product enjoyed a two-month run without a missed cut from early May into July, but still has work to do to secure top-125 status.

The question for Ghim is ultimately on the greens: he’s one of just five players this season on the PGA TOUR ranked in the top 15 in both driving accuracy and greens in regulation percentage but is 142nd in Strokes Gained: Putting.

C.T. Pan

Current FedExCup Fall position: 124

Top-125 probability: 53.6%

Exempt status: Top 125 in 2021-22 FedExCup Playoffs and Eligibility Points List (through 2022-23)

The questions regarding Presidents Cupper and PGA TOUR winner Pan this season have unfortunately revolved around health. Pan missed the first three full months of the season with a wrist injury, not teeing it up for the first time in 2023 until the RBC Heritage. In his last start, the Shriners Children’s Open, he was forced to withdraw before the second round with a back injury.

When he’s played, though, he’s had some prominent highlights: a closing 62 at the AT&T Byron Nelson to finish solo fourth, a T3 result in his next start, the RBC Canadian Open, and a tie for ninth earlier this month at the Sanderson Farms. Pan’s health will be a key factor in deciding the last few spots in the 125.

Erik Van Rooyen

Current FedExCup Fall position: 125

Top-125 probability: 39.2%

Exempt status: Tournament winner (exempt through 2022-23)

After missing nine cuts in 11 starts at one point this summer, Erik van Rooyen has put together a resilient fall so far, picking up three consecutive top-30 finishes. Now in the precarious last qualifying spot for a TOUR card, Twenty First Group gives him about a 39 percent chance of staying inside the bubble.

That number might be a little low given how well van Rooyen has struck the ball recently. Over his last three starts, the South African is averaging more than 1.3 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round. If you’re into more traditional statistics, he’s hitting 78% of his greens in regulation in that same stretch.

Cameron Champ

Current FedExCup Fall position: 127

Top-125 probability: 15.9%

Exempt status: Tournament winner (through 2023-24)

It’s been a difficult year for three-time PGA TOUR winner Champ, as he’s missed 17 cuts in 27 events. But perhaps he’s found something of late: in his last three starts, he’s finished in the top 20 twice, sharing the 36-hole lead two starts ago at TPC Summerlin. He’s gained strokes with his approach play in each of his last seven ShotLink measured starts, too, something he did not do in any of his first six tournaments of the season.

The flatstick has plagued him, as he ranks outside the top 160 on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting per round. But even that’s turned a bit too, as he averaged well over half a stroke gained on the greens per round at both Sanderson and Shriners.