What’s different about Justin Thomas’ game in 2023? Look to his Approach stats

Justin Thomas’ streak of seven consecutive TOUR Championship appearances is in precarious position with one week to go before the start of the FedExCup Playoffs. Thomas currently sits 79th in the FedExCup standings and needs a big week at the Wyndham Championship to vault inside the top 70 to make it to next week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. Sedgefield Country Club is the perfect place for him to do it.

Thomas was just 16 years old when he made his PGA TOUR debut at Sedgefield in 2009, making the cut following rounds of 65-72 and finishing T78. He’s played in Greensboro twice since, finishing T-56 in 2015 and missing the cut in 2016. But he’s got fond memories to draw on for the week ahead.

“I knew I wanted to play on the PGA TOUR and try to be winning tournaments out here, but that somehow took my want and drive and determination even higher after that week,” Thomas said Tuesday. “It was just the coolest experience. I'm like I want to do this every week and I want to do this for a really long time.”

But Thomas stands 48 points from the coveted No. 70 position in the standings, and he’ll need to earn at least that many points to earn a spot in the Playoffs. This makes for a different mindset from last season, when Thomas was in sixth and contending for a second FedExCup.

As for what he needs to do this week, Thomas says he’s keeping his expectations in check and noted, “I don't necessarily have any (expectations) in particular. I just know I'm really, really close to playing some really, really good golf. The reality is, I need to play well this week to give that an opportunity to come out. That's the unfortunate but also realistic part of where I'm at right now.”

There is one area where Thomas is falling short this year: Proximity to Hole. Thomas, who ranked in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Approach in the previous six seasons but is 39th in 2023, is leaving himself longer putts from all approach length segments, thus lowering his putts-made percentage for scoring.

Approach

Proximity to Hole

Thomas is ranked 139th in Proximity to Hole this season, down 123 spots from this time last year and a 4-foot increase in average putt length.

Since 2018, Thomas’ proximity to hole has been improving every season, with his lowest average in 2022 at 34.9 feet. In 2023, however, he’s approximately 3 feet above his average from the previous five years.

Proximity to Hole by approach length

Breaking down overall average proximity to hole into approach length segment at 25-yard increments, Thomas’s average proximity this year is higher than 2022 from all distances, which is reflected in the chart below.

Through the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open, Thomas was ranked inside the top five on TOUR in Proximity to Hole in all four approach length segments between 75 and 175 yards, and he was top 10 in all six between 50 and 200 yards. This season, he’s not in the top 10 of any yardage group.

Putting

Relationship between Proximity to Hole and putting distance make percentage

The impact of an average increase in overall Proximity to Hole can be seen in the chart below, depicting Thomas’ five-year putts-made percentage, including the overall PGA TOUR average for smoothing the curve at which Thomas is aligned.

Beginning at 3 feet, putts-made percentage decays at an exponential rate before leveling close to 0% after 25 feet.

Justin Thomas’ putting stats in 2023 vs. 2022

When taking a closer look at Thomas’ putting opportunities at longer lengths, he’s losing strokes to the field in putting (half a shot lost compared to last season) and his three-putts are increasing.

Off the Tee

Distribution of Approach lengths

Given that a player’s Approach game impacts Putting and Around the Green stats, Off the Tee has the same influence on Approach. The below chart shows the distribution of Thomas’ approaches by distance over the past two seasons. Poor off-the-tee often results in a rightward bias on the chart as players face more approaches from longer distances. In Thomas’ case, this change in distribution is present for 2023 compared to 2022, with more approaches from 175 yards and higher over last season.

Justin Thomas’ Off the Tee stats for 2023 vs. 2022

However, Thomas is not far off on his performance Off the Tee compared to 2023, with just slightly more accuracy and less distance.

Final thoughts

It’s important to consider Off the Tee performance in Thomas’ statistical differences for 2023 vs. 2022, because he is facing longer approach shots more frequently. This will result in an increase to his average proximity to the hole on approach shots, since players hit longer approach shots farther from the hole. But, by breaking down his approach shots into distance increments, we can see Thomas is hitting his approach shots farther from the hole from all distances compared to last season.

Strategy for Wyndham Championship

As for whether Thomas’ performance this season is enough to make it to the Playoffs, he’s still above TOUR average in Proximity to Hole stats inside 100 and 200 yards. Last week’s venue, TPC Twin Cities, was on the longer side for the season at 7,400 yards and left more approach shots between 150 and 175 yards. This week’s Wyndham Championship is played at Sedgefield Country Club, which is one of the TOUR’s shorter venues and historically has given players more approaches from 126-150 yards. The distribution of shorter approaches this week would benefit Thomas for scoring opportunities.

See Justin Thomas’ full stats here.