Stats Report: FedExCup Playoffs probabilities after running 20,000 simulations

Entering the final event of the regular season, Twenty First Group projects that 68 players have a 94% probability or higher to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs. That leaves just a pair of realistically attainable spots in the field next week in Tennessee at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, with a stacked list of hopefuls teeing it up this week in Greensboro.

We ran 20,000 simulations of how the bubble will play out this weekend in North Carolina. The results predict a rollercoaster finish to the PGA TOUR regular season.

Ben Griffin

Current position: 68

Playoff probability: 94.6%

Griffin is the last of the aforementioned 68 players with at least a 94% probability of advancing to the postseason. A run of six missed cuts in eight starts from late April through June kicked Griffin from inside the top-50 to the bubble, but his tie for 20th last week at the 3M Open allowed him to maintain his playoff spot heading to the season’s final week. Griffin finished alone in fourth place at the Wyndham Championship last year in his tournament debut. He won’t have to do nearly that much this week to secure his first career playoff berth.

Cam Davis

Current position: 69

Playoff probability: 72.7%

This is where the bubble starts to get interesting. Davis leapt from 76th to inside the playoff picture last week with a top-10 finish in Minnesota. His four top-10 finishes have come in some of his biggest moments of the season: THE PLAYERS (T-6), the elevated RBC Heritage (T-7), PGA Championship (T-4) and last week, with his back against the proverbial postseason wall. Davis has finished in the top-25 in both of his previous appearances in Greensboro (T-22 in 2019, T-15 in 2020).

Austin Eckroat

Current position: 70

Playoff probability: 34.1%

With so many players within striking distance, Eckroat has less than a 35% chance of advancing to the postseason despite entering the week in the final qualifying spot. Eckroat entered July with 13 spots separating him from the 70th position, but two missed cuts and a tie for 65th since have garnered him a meager 3.8 FedExCup points since. Eckroat’s strongest strokes gained ranking this season comes from his shots off the tee. That doesn’t fit Sedgefield’s history: since 2010, Wyndham winners have gained 14.8% of their Strokes Gained: Total with shots off the tee, significantly less than the TOUR average (18.4%).

Ben Taylor

Current position: 71

Playoff probability: 14.6%

When Taylor tied for fifth at The Honda Classic back in February, he was a lofty 27th in the FedExCup standings – a tremendous opening push to begin the season. Six months and 10 missed cuts later, Taylor will need a big week in Greensboro to advance to the Playoffs for the first time in his PGA TOUR career. In three of his four top-10 finishes this season, Taylor ranked in the top-three for the week in Strokes Gained: Putting. He’ll likely need another hot week on the greens to jump back into the top 70.

Garrick Higgo

Current position: 72

Playoff probability: 10.5%

After entering July ranked 85th in points, Higgo had a strong month to put him back in the mix for a playoff spot. Higgo might have the best form of the players currently outside the top 70 with a legitimate shot of getting in: 16 consecutive rounds at par or better, four straight made cuts and three top-25 finishes in a row. Higgo needs help from the players in front of him but continuing that upward trajectory this week in Greensboro could lead to a spot in the postseason.

K.H. Lee

Current position: 73

Playoff probability: 9.2%

It’s been a tough summer for Presidents Cup International team member Lee: since the beginning of June, he’s made just one cut and earned less than three total FedExCup points. A second-round 67 last week at the 3M Open showed glimmers of what he enjoyed in the first half of the season but wasn’t enough to get him inside the cut line. Lee has made the cut in each of his last two appearances at the Wyndham Championship. He will need to eclipse his best career finish there (T-24) in order to make it to Tennessee.

Shane Lowry

Current position: 76

Playoff probability: 14.0%

Now, for the portion of the bubble where some notable major championship winners reside. First up, Lowry, who has never actually been inside the top 70 of the FedExCup standings at any point this year. It’s not that he’s had a bad year, either: Lowry has just three missed cuts and nine top-25 finishes in his 17 PGA TOUR starts the 2022-23 season. He hasn’t had a big point-accruing week, with his best finish coming at The Honda Classic back in February.

This week is Lowry’s sixth-career start at the Wyndham Championship. His best career finish is a tie for seventh place in 2017.

Justin Thomas

Current position: 79

Playoff probability: 11.5%

For both the Playoffs and potentially a spot on the U.S. Ryder Cup team, time is running low for two-time PGA champion Thomas. JT’s missed cut at the 3M Open allowed four more players to leapfrog him in the standings heading into the final week of the regular season. All is not lost, though: the 2017 FedExCup champion is far from mathematically eliminated and is clearly capable of an explosive week to get inside the number. Since the beginning of 2015, Thomas has shot 63 or lower a whopping 21 times on the PGA TOUR – seven more times than any other player.

Adam Scott

Current position: 81

Playoff probability: 5.2%

It’s a long shot, sure, but Scott can still work his way into the Playoffs this week.

The 2013 Masters champion’s last two top-20 finishes on TOUR each came at elevated events: the Memorial Tournament (T-9) and the Travelers Championship (T-19). Two years ago, Scott nearly won here: his weekend rally of 64-65 put him in the six-man playoff eventually won by Kevin Kisner. That week, the affable Aussie led the field in birdies and ranked third in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Scott, Thomas and Lowry will be grouped together in rounds one and two at Sedgefield.