Justin Thomas needs a late push to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs... the stats say it'll be close

With only 70 players qualifying for the FedExCup Playoffs in 2023, it’s never been more difficult to advance to golf’s lucrative postseason. Over the next two weeks, even players who have enjoyed a good amount of success on TOUR in recent months will be battling for one of the coveted spots at TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

To break down the bubble, Twenty First Group ran thousands of simulations of what might happen at this week’s 3M Open and next week at the Wyndham Championship, using player performance metrics, course fit statistics and historic tournament outcomes. When the digital dust settled, 64 of the top 70 players in this week’s FedExCup standings had at least a 90-percent chance of qualifying for a spot in the first postseason event in two weeks.

That leaves ample space for players to shift in and out of the Playoff picture this week and next, with plenty of interesting stories shaping up.

Keith Mitchell

Current FedExCup position: 66

Playoff probability: 82.1%

Despite missing back-to-back cuts at the Genesis Scottish Open and Barracuda Championship the last two weeks, Mitchell will be firmly inside the number if he has a decent performance this week in Minnesota. Mitchell finished solo fifth at this event a year ago, so that seems like a reasonable bet to make. The University of Georgia product has not missed three cuts in a row on the PGA TOUR since the summer of 2021.

Sam Ryder

Current FedExCup position: 69

Playoff probability: 34.1%

Sam Ryder is also currently on the inside, but in a more precarious spot than Mitchell at the moment. A tie for third place at the Valero Texas Open had Ryder inside the top 40 in points, but he’s missed seven cuts in 10 starts since. Ryder has a sub-70 career scoring average in 12 previous rounds at the 3M Open. A 36-hole total of 1-over par made the cut here in 2022.

K.H. Lee

Current FedExCup position: 70

Playoff probability: 36.4%

A member of the 2022 Presidents Cup International team, Lee finds himself in the last qualifying spot for the postseason with two weeks to go. Lee’s probability of staying in the top 70 – less than 40 percent – is heavily influenced by his recent play: five missed cuts and a combined score of 23-over par in his last seven PGA TOUR starts. Like Mitchell, though, Lee finished in the top-10 the last time he teed it up at the 3M Open, landing in a tie for sixth back in 2021.

Davis Thompson

Current FedExCup position: 72

Playoff probability: 20.1%

Decent finishes at the Rocket Mortgage (T24) and John Deere Classic (T31) bumped Davis Thompson inside the top 70, but he’s fallen just out of it entering his 3M Open debut. Thompson came tantalizingly close to his first PGA TOUR victory earlier this year at The American Express, but some guy named Jon Rahm clipped him by one shot. Thompson’s biggest strength statistically this season has been the driver: He’s in the top 25 on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Total Driving. The last two 3M Opens have been won by Cameron Champ and Tony Finau, two men who ranked in the top 15 in SG: Off-the-Tee the year they took home the victory.

Justin Thomas

Current FedExCup position: 75

Playoff probability: 40.4%

One of the most surprising stories of the 2022-23 season is the position Thomas sits in at the moment. The former No. 1 player in the world, one of the most prolific winners of his generation, has an uphill climb to qualify for the Playoffs. The other looming storyline is Thomas’ status on the U.S. Ryder Cup team: JT will almost certainly need a captain’s pick from Zach Johnson to make the roster, barring a lava-hot run to and through the postseason.

Thomas is doing everything in his power to change his fortunes, adding this week’s 3M Open and the Wyndham Championship to his schedule. This is JT’s first career appearance at the 3M Open, and next week he’ll make his first start in Greensboro in seven years. For virtually his entire pro career, Thomas has been one of the most consistent iron players in the game, ranking in the top 10 in SG: Approach each of the last six seasons. That number has slipped from elite to merely above average this season (41st). The biggest issue statistically, though, is on the greens, where Thomas is losing more than a full stroke to the field per 72 holes.

Justin Suh

Current FedExCup position: 76

Playoff probability: 15.7%

The outright 36-hole leader at both the Honda Classic and the Memorial Tournament, Justin Suh has looked at times this season like he was on the precipice of a breakout moment. That moment may still happen in the next few weeks: The former No. 1 amateur in the world has missed the cut only one time since October. Suh has proven himself to be one of the best in the sport on the greens, ranking 12th on TOUR this season in SG: Putting per round.

Joel Dahmen

Current FedExCup position: 81

Playoff probability: 4.9%

Joel Dahmen snapped an unfortunate run of five consecutive missed cuts with a tie for 10th place last week at the Barracuda Championship. Three straight top-10 finishes in the fall had the affable Dahmen in the top 15 of the FedExCup standings, but a tough summer has left him with a lot of work to do the next two weeks to make it to Tennessee. Dahmen finished tied for 67th in his one previous start at the 3M Open and has made the cut in three of four prior appearances in Greensboro.