What the stats say about Rory McIlroy’s major quest

When Rory McIlroy won the 2014 PGA Championship, the 25-year-old was on a career arc rivaled by few in the history of the game. Since the first Masters in 1934, only three men have won four or more majors before age 26: Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods and McIlroy. Golf had an ebullient young superstar at the top of the sport, picking off major wins at a prolific clip. The future seemed limitless.

Thirty-four majors later, amidst a radically different professional golf landscape, McIlroy is still looking for No. 5. His on-course success is still bountiful: he’s the only man to win the FedExCup three times, and his PGA TOUR wins total is up to 24 after last week’s triumph at the Genesis Scottish Open. But Sunday will mark 3,269 days since Rory’s last major win.

So close, so often

McIlroy fans don’t need to be reminded how many times he’s been painfully close to picking up another major. Since his win at the 2014 PGA, Rory has finished in the top 10 in 19 majors, most of any player in that span. The next three names on that list – Brooks Koepka (17 top-10s), Dustin Johnson (16) and Jordan Spieth (13) – have combined to win 10 majors in that stretch. McIlroy has been within four shots of the lead entering the final round of a major six times since 2018 alone. That includes last year’s Open at St. Andrews, when McIlroy shared the 54-hole lead, hit every green in regulation in the final round – and still did not win, the only time that has happened in any major championship since detailed statistics have been tracked.

McIlroy’s putter has been the culprit on those critical Sundays. There have been nine instances since 2015 in which McIlroy has been at or within five shots of the lead entering the final round of a major. When comparing his approach play in the first three rounds to Round Four, the numbers are similar: 69.8% greens in regulation for the first three days and 67.9% on Sunday. His putting has seen a more significant drop-off: almost two more putts per round on Sunday, one fewer one-putt, and a big dip in scrambling rate from 60.5% to 51.9%.

The final-round putting trend has been even more pronounced over the last two seasons. McIlroy is averaging 0.64 Strokes Gained: Putting per round in Rounds 1-3 of majors in that span. In the final round, that number drops to just 0.27. Again – the numbers aren’t terrible on Sunday – but the difference has been enough to extend McIlroy’s major championship drought into its ninth year.

Reasons for optimism this week

So why might this week at Royal Liverpool be different? Firstly, McIlroy rarely enters a major championship on the kind of hot streak he’s currently enjoying. It’s not just that he won last week – he’s finished in the top-ten in each of his last six starts. Only one other time in his professional career has McIlroy gone to a major coming off six or more consecutive top-ten finishes – the 2019 Masters, when he had done so in seven in a row. This will be the fifth time McIlroy has played a major having won his previous worldwide start. In three of the four prior instances, he finished in the top 10 at that major. That includes the 2014 PGA at Valhalla, when he picked up major championship win No. 4.

Analytically speaking, there’s a lot to like about what McIlroy did in the final round at The Renaissance Club. McIlroy had his best day on the greens Sunday, ranking third in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting. McIlroy made more than 113 feet of putts in the final round alone, compared to 92 feet in Rounds 2 and 3 combined. Tee-to-green, nobody was better than McIlroy for the week, as he gained 12.68 strokes on the field in that category.

Everything about McIlroy’s last two holes at the Scottish Open – the tournament situation, difficulty of the holes, pre-shot decision making and ultimately, shot execution – was exquisite. The average proximity to the 17th hole by the field on Sunday was outside 49 feet. McIlroy hit his shot to 4 feet, 6 inches and drained the birdie putt. At 18, the average proximity in the final round was 68 feet. McIlroy hit it to 11 feet and made the putt for a one-shot win.

And despite not breaking through with a win, almost no player has been as consistently good overall in the majors as McIlroy in recent years. Rory is one of three players to finish in the top 10 at both this year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open (Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Smith are the others). McIlroy is a combined 27underpar at The Open since 2017, tied for second-best in that span. McIlroy is second only to Scheffler in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus Approach-the-Green) per round at the majors the last two years.

In his 2014 victory at Royal Liverpool, McIlroy was outstanding with his driver, leading the field in average distance off the tee and hitting nearly two-thirds of his fairways. But he was nearly as great on and around the greens, ranking fourth in both scrambling percentage and putts per round.

He’ll likely need every club in the bag this week to hold off an elite field and finally get that fifth major.