How the top three separate themselves statistically

As attention turns to TPC Sawgrass, three PGA TOUR stars have begun to separate themselves statistically. Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy, who occupy the top three spots in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), respectively, will go off the 10th tee at 7:56 a.m. ET Thursday. The world will be watching.

Since July 2021, one of these three has occupied the top spot in the OWGR. They have combined to win 15 official events around the world since the beginning of 2022, and each has found the winner’s circle at least once so far in 2023. McIlroy is the reigning FedExCup champion; Rahm leads the standings so far this season; Scheffler successfully defended his WM Phoenix Open title. In an elite field, these three stand a little taller.

With the opening round just hours away, here are three key numbers to know about each of them:

Numbers to Know: Rory McIlroy

1.92

McIlroy made his first career cut at TPC Sawgrass in 2013, when he tied for eighth place. Since that week, no player has averaged more Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round – 1.92 – there than McIlroy (minimum 12 rounds). McIlroy has been especially brilliant on the critical closing holes: since 2013, he is a combined 26 under par on the last three holes, 11 strokes better than any other player in that span.

2.28

While the top three hold down the top three spots in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, McIlroy has been a cut above when it comes to ball striking. He is averaging a gaudy 2.28 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round this season, more than full quarter of a stroke better than any other player. Only two players in the last decade have finished a PGA TOUR season averaging more than two full strokes gained per round in this statistic: Adam Scott in 2016 (2.06) and McIlroy himself in 2019 (2.13).

17.9%

While McIlroy’s ball striking has been exemplary, his putting has not been nearly as sharp this season as it was a year ago. Last season he ranked inside the top 20 in Strokes Gained: Putting per round. So far this year, he’s a paltry 151st, which makes his adjusted scoring average (2nd best on the PGA TOUR) all the more impressive.

So far this season McIlroy is making just 17.9% of his putts from 10 to 20 feet, 182nd among qualified players. Last season, he had the second-best make percentage on TOUR from 10 to 20 feet, 33.9%. A regression to the mean (the TOUR average from 10-20 feet this season is 25.5%) for McIlroy could be scary for the field and would make him a tough man to beat at THE PLAYERS this week.

Numbers to Know: Scottie Scheffler

100

Among of the most significant improvements made in Scheffler’s game over the past 18 months is his approach play. What’s most remarkable, though, isn’t just that he’s greatly improved from one specific range. What’s most remarkable is the strides he’s made from a variety of distances with an iron in his hands.

In the 2020-21 season, Scheffler ranked well outside the top 100 in average proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards, 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards. Since the beginning of last season, he has made huge improvements from those distances – up more than 100 spots in all three yardage buckets. These improvements may seem small – for example, he’s getting the ball 3 feet, 6 inches closer on average from 175-200 yards – but that difference has moved him from 131st in 2020-21 to 9th since the beginning of last season. It’s all added up to massive results, as his five wins since last January are most of any player on TOUR.

1

After leading the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation last season, Scheffler has the early lead again. How rare is it for a player to lead the TOUR in that traditional metric twice, let alone in back-to-back seasons? In the last decade, only one player has won multiple season titles in the greens in regulation statistic (Henrik Stenson, three times). The last man to lead the TOUR in G.I.R. in back-to-back seasons was John Senden, who did it in 2009 and 2010. Before him, it was Tiger Woods in 2006-2007.

67.8%

Scheffler hasn’t just made strides with his approach play, he’s also done so with his scrambling. He was a relatively mediocre 85th on TOUR in scrambling percentage in 2021-22 despite having a breakout season. He ranks in the top 15 in that statistic, getting up and down 67.8 percent of the time, so far this season.

Part of improving that number comes from reducing three-putts. Scheffler’s done that, too, this season, vaulting from 80th in three-putt avoidance last year to 3rd so far in 2022-23. Although he spent last season winning four times and reaching number one in the world, Scheffler, incredibly, is only getting better.

Numbers to Know: Jon Rahm

10

Rahm entered last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard ranked inside the top 10 this season in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Putting. The only player to finish a PGA TOUR season ranked in the top 10 in all three of those statistics is Tiger Woods, doing so in both 2005 and 2007. A wild week off the tee at Bay Hill dropped his season ranking in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee to 34th, but there’s plenty of time for Rahm to move back into the top 10 in that statistic. Expect him to do so; in six full seasons on TOUR, he’s never finished worse than fifth.

41.64%

So far this season, Rahm is converting on a whopping 41.64% of his birdie (or eagle) opportunities. That’s an astronomical clip, as no player in the last 40 seasons has finished a PGA TOUR season at 40% or better in this metric. Despite his weekend struggles at Bay Hill, Rahm still carded plenty of red numbers around Arnold Palmer’s place last week: his 40.0% birdie-or-better conversion rate ranked 8th-best.

-24

Rahm will be trying to reverse a negative statistical trend this week at TPC Sawgrass. In his career at THE PLAYERS, Rahm has played well in rounds one and two – with scoring averages of 70 or lower, respectively, in both rounds. He’s a combined 24-under-par over the first two days. The weekend is another story, as Rahm is a combined +10 in rounds three and four at TPC Sawgrass.

His struggles have been especially pronounced on the greens: In rounds one and two, he’s gained more than 5.5 strokes putting. He’s lost 12.8 strokes putting on the weekend over his career.