Inside the numbers: Jon Rahm’s dominance

When Jon Rahm received The Genesis Invitational trophy from Tiger Woods two weeks ago, it was a statistically fitting exchange. Rahm had just won his fifth tournament in nine starts worldwide – a pace that recalled Woods in his prime.

Now Rahm heads to Orlando, where he will play the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard for just the second time in his career. Will he keep up this incredible pace with THE PLAYERS Championship on deck? Let’s take a closer look at some of the remarkable numbers the world No. 1 has been assembling.

1.9%

In Rahm’s last 10 worldwide starts, the fields have had a combined total of 1,025 other players. During that time, only 19 have finished ahead of Rahm that given week – the most coming at the unofficial Hero World Challenge, where seven players beat him (Rahm tied for eighth). This means that in his last 10 tournaments, Rahm has either beaten or tied 98.1% of the competition. On average, fewer than two players per tournament have had a better score than Rahm during this time span.

10

Rahm is inside the top 10 this season in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting. How rare is this trifecta? This is the 20th PGA TOUR season where strokes gained data has been available. During that time, only one player has finished a season ranked inside the top 10 in all three of those statistics: Woods, who did it twice, in 2005 and 2007. Rahm’s best career end-of-season ranking in Strokes Gained: Putting is 22nd (2019-20).

5

During this 10-tournament stretch, Rahm has been inside the top five after 26 of 39 rounds played (the BMW PGA Championship last fall was shortened to 54 holes). He’s absolutely dominated the par 5s, playing them in a combined 97 under par. His par 5 scoring average on the PGA TOUR this season so far is 4.29, best of any player, and about one-third of a stroke better than the TOUR average.

-58

Through three designated events this season on the PGA TOUR, Rahm has posted the best cumulative score to par, at 58 under. His 72 birdies or better are seven more than any other player (Max Homa, 65). Rahm is the only player to finish in the top 10 in each of the three designated events played in 2023.

1975

Rahm’s win at The Genesis Invitational at Riviera two weeks ago gave him three so far on the PGA TOUR in this calendar year (along with the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express). Incredibly, Rahm is the first player since Johnny Miller in 1975 to win three times on the PGA TOUR in a calendar year before March 1. Spinning it forward: The last player to win four times in a calendar year before April 1 was also Miller, who did it in 1974.

1

Rahm leads the PGA TOUR this season in scoring average, Strokes Gained: Total, greens in regulation, birdie average, birdie conversion percentage, par 3 scoring, par 5 scoring, official earnings and the FedExCup standings.

10

Rahm’s win at The Genesis Invitational was the 10th of his PGA TOUR career. He’s still only 28, and just the fourth player from outside the United States since 1960 to reach double-digit victories before his 30th birthday. The other three to accomplish the feat are Gary Player (age 29), Jason Day (28) and Rory McIlroy (25). The win also gave Rahm five official PGA TOUR titles in California – only Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson (14 apiece) have more in the last 30 years.

71.19

As the PGA TOUR has shifted coasts, should golf fans shift their expectations for Rahm, too? He hasn’t been nearly as successful in Florida as he has in California. Since 2017, Rahm has a scoring average of 71.19 in PGA TOUR events in Florida – nearly 2.5 strokes higher than he averages in California in that span. He averages 1.04 Strokes Gained: Total per round in Florida, less than half his sum on the West Coast (+2.22 per round). On the greens is where the drop-off is most significant: In California, he’s averaged 0.44 Strokes Gained: Putting per round, while he loses 0.35 per round in Florida.

200

However, one key number points to Rahm possibly reversing that trend. Over the last five years, Bay Hill Club and Lodge has seen more approach shots from outside 200 yards than any course on TOUR. Rahm is one of the world’s best at those lengthy approaches: Over the last three PGA TOUR seasons, he’s ranked ninth in average proximity to the hole from that range.

Six of the last seven winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational ranked T7 or better for the week in score to par when facing an approach shot of 200 yards or more. That’s an even better numerical omen for Rahm, because when you crunch the numbers there are more than 230 players with at least 100 approach shots from that range over the last three PGA TOUR seasons combined. The player with the best average score to par in those situations?

Jon Rahm.