Win probabilities: PGA Championship

2022 PGA Championship, Round 2

Top 10 win probabilities:

1. Will Zalatoris (1, -9, 32.5%)
2. Mito Pereira (2, -8, 17.4%)
3. Justin Thomas (3, -6, 16.8%)
4. Rory McIlroy (T5, -4, 7.3%)
5. Bubba Watson (4, -5, 4.3%)
6. Matthew Fitzpatrick (T8, -3, 3.1%)
7. Cameron Smith (T10, -2, 2.5%)
8. Abraham Ancer (T5, -4, 2.1%)
9. Davis Riley (T5, -4, 2.0%)
10. Sam Burns (T10, -2, 1.3%)

Top Strokes-Gained Performers from Round 2:

Putting: Sadom Kaewkanjana +5.7
Around the Green: Troy Merritt +4.2
Approach the Green: Gary Woodland +4.6
Off-the-tee: Bubba Watson +2.4
Total: Bubba Watson +9.6

NOTE: These reports are based off of the live predictive model run by @DataGolf. The model provides live “Make Cut”, “Top 20”, “Top 5”, and “Win” probabilities every 5 minutes from the opening tee shot to the final putt of every PGA TOUR event. Briefly, the model takes account of the current form of each golfer as well as the difficulty of their remaining holes, and probabilities are calculated from 20K simulations. To follow live finish probabilities throughout the remainder of the AT&T Byron Nelson, or to see how each golfer’s probabilities have evolved from the start of the event to the current time, click here for the model’s home page.