The WM Phoenix Open has etched itself into the calendar in permanent ink, becoming a sports entertainment mecca. The main attraction at TPC Scottsdale is, of course, the stadium hole at 16. An otherwise benign par 3 has been morphed into a relentlessly loud arena, equal parts Phoenix Suns playoff game and rock concert.

The last hole-in-one made at 16 came in the third round in 2015 when future Open Champion Francesco Molinari jarred his tee ball into the cup. It’s hard to forget how the euphoric masses celebrated by making the sky rain domestic light beer. For one week a year, the party becomes the primary attraction.

How does the chaos at 16 impact the world’s best players? Do scoring conditions get more difficult as the crowd loosens up? Twenty First Group analyzed every shot that has been hit at 16 over the last 10 years – more than 12,000 strokes in all. While the trends weren’t overwhelming, there are numerous statistics that point to the crowd having some impact on the play at 16 as the round progresses.

Thursday and Friday

Let’s first look at rounds one and two, before the cut when the entire field is in play. Over the last 10 years at 16, the rate of players hitting the green in regulation trends downward as the round progresses. Before 10a.m., 72 percent of all players find the putting surface off the tee. That number drops to 70.6% from 10a.m. to 1p.m., 68.7% from 1p.m. to 3p.m., then 67.0% from 3p.m. onward.

While the G.I.R. rate dips slightly as the day goes on, other numbers cloud the direct impact the crowd might have. From 10 a.m. to 1p.m., 10.5% of tee shots at 16 end up inside 10 feet. From 1p.m. onward, that number increases, to 12.3%. Meanwhile, scoring averages are almost identical – 2.99 before 1p.m. local time, 3.00 from 1p.m. through the end of the day.

Weekend Warriors

What about Saturday, the rowdiest day of the entire golf year? With record-shattering crowds reveling at this desert oasis, how does the increased noise impact tee shots hit inside the arena at 16? The hole is traditionally set up with excitement in mind: over the last 10 years, 5.5% of all tee shots are hit to 5 feet or closer. That is by far the highest such rate of the week.

There have been more than 700 third round tee shots hit at 16 over the last decade. Breaking them down by time of day reveals that fewer quality approach shots are hit when the crowd is at its most fiery.

About 20% of the field have played this hole in the 11 o’clock hour over the last decade. More than half of those players – 51.4% - have hit their approach shot at 16 inside 20 feet. From noon to 1p.m., that number drops to 46.3%. From 2 to 3p.m., with the crowd at its fever pitch, less than 40% of players hit their tee shots inside that range.

One of the factors to consider is the form of the players themselves who are hitting these shots. In theory, those playing earliest in the day (further down the leaderboard) would not be in as sharp in form as the players later in the day, contending to win the tournament. And while that isn’t a statistical certitude, it does make the line graph of players hitting a lower rate of shots inside 20 feet a bit more interesting.

Best Performers at 16

So, who are some of the best performers all-time at the 16th? Historically, Kenny Perry holds the record for most career birdies on the hole, with 24. Mark Calcavecchia, a three-time winner of the event, ranks second all-time with 20 birdies. Calcavecchia and Phil Mickelson are the only players to win this tournament in three different decades. Two players are double digits under par for their careers on the hole: Perry (-12) and Dan Forsman (-10).

While two-time Waste Management Phoenix Open champion Hideki Matsuyama is not among the nine players in tournament history to make a hole-in-one at 16, no player has been close to doing it more often in recent years. Matsuyama has hit four approach shots to 5 feet or closer on the 16th hole, the only player with that distinction over the last decade. Four players have done it three times each in that span: Chesson Hadley, J.B. Holmes, James Hahn and Pat Perez.

ShotLink tracking began at this hole in 2004. Since then, there are 271 players with at least 10 rounds recorded at TPC Scottsdale. Of that group, J.J. Spaun leads in Strokes Gained: Approach per time playing the hole, gaining nearly a quarter-of-a-stroke. Some notable great performers on that list are Justin Rose (ranked 8th), Justin Thomas (10th) and Matsuyama (13th). Former world number one Jason Day has been the best putter here, leading all players in Strokes Gained: Putting per trip (+0.29) among players with 12 or more rounds since ’04.

Overdue for an Ace

The simple math says there will be a hole-in-one at 16 sooner rather than later. All-time, the 16th has yielded a hole-in-one once in every 1,607 times the hole has been played. There have been more than 2,500 tee shots hit at 16 since Molinari’s pandemonium-inducing ace seven years ago. Is this the year we see number 10?