NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Nicolai Højgaard (+7000) … The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort hasn’t crowned a breakthrough winner in his Valspar Championship debut since Gary Woodland in 2011. So, yeah, I’m saying that there’s a chance. Unlike Woodland at the time, Højgaard is a three-time winner on the DP World Tour, so there’s already a proven comfort level while in contention. In four starts on the PGA TOUR in 2025, the 24-year-old Dane has cashed three times, two of which for top 20s when he connected eight sub-70s across the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld (solo eighth) and the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches (T18). In 14 rounds, he leads the TOUR in greens in regulation and putting inside 10 feet. That potent combination contributes to his rank of third in adjusted scoring.

Top 5

Stephan Jaeger (+1000) … As a courtesy reminder, five of my touts for this finish paid in 2024. I’m quick to add that each merely fulfilled his projection in that given week, but I’ve also communicated over the years that a Top 5 is a bonus, not an expectation. Too many things need to go right in the short- and long-term during a tournament for it to deliver. Of course, we know this guy to be electric at times, but it’s his form that fuels confidence in something special. Already has a T3 this season at the Sony Open in Hawaii, a tournament notorious for rewarding those with course knowledge. He added a T6 at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, and then slipped to T20 at THE PLAYERS Championship after opening the finale at T8. He’s 2-for-4 and without a top 25 at Copperhead, so, like at Waialae Country Club, the value is in his experience on the course.

Top 10

Matti Schmid (+900) … So dynamic that he’s worth a space on your card every time he plays. He’s +2200 for a Top 5 but this market is more encouraging for a couple of reasons. First, he continues to be just fine as an all-or-nothing performer with a tilt to the streaky. Case in point, he’s cashed just thrice in eight starts this season, but each was a top 25. Two of those were in his last three starts and included a T6 at the Puerto Rico Open two weeks ago. Second, he rose for a T17 in what was his second trip to Copperhead last year, thus proving that firepower can be controlled on a challenging test.

Top 20

Kevin Roy (+280) … The 35-year-old has been making the most of his return to the big leagues. In seven starts, he’s connected for a T6 and another two top 20s. What’s odd is the elevated respect he’s garnered on betting boards in recent weeks, but his analytics are impressive. Currently second in total driving, 17th in greens in regulation, 15th in proximity to the hole and 12th in adjusted scoring. The kicker for this week is that, in what was his only PGA TOUR appearance last season, he finished T12 at Copperhead where he gained entry via a sponsor exemption.

Top Oceania

Karl Vilips (+600) … It seems counterintuitive that a guy who won two weeks ago would qualify as a Sleeper, but it’s relative to the others in this market. In fact, the breakthrough champion of the Puerto Rico Open slots fourth (of five) behind Adam Scott (+115), Ryan Fox (+260) and Cam Davis (+500), each of whom is tagged with a question mark upon arrival. Meanwhile, Vilips couldn’t have appeared more comfortable en route to his victory all the while fulfilling even the most aggressive of expectations. And he was only a few weeks removed from returning from a bulging disc in his back.

Odds were sourced at FanDuel.

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