Sleeper Picks: The RSM Classic

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Greyson Sigg (+5000) … It isn’t by design but it also isn’t a mistake that Ben Griffin is No. 1 in the Power Rankings. He earned it even though he’s a non-winner on the PGA TOUR. He’s to whom my process led. However, I’d be lying if I stated that the propensity for a first-time winner at The RSM Classic wasn’t baked into the calculus. Nine of the 14 winners, including each of the last three, were breakthroughs. In short, that unchecked box on Griffin’s board is irrelevant at Sea Island.

As Griffin concludes his second season as a PGA TOUR member, Sigg is wrapping his third and he’s also a non-winner. He made his PGA TOUR debut at Sea Island in 2017 and is among the throng of local residents, so he’s already making his sixth appearance. In the pair of editions last season, he placed a respective T15 and T8. Those whiffs at the top of the leaderboard are all but expected given his skill set of finding fairways and greens, as well as his efficiency in cleaning up after wayward approaches, and all of it especially on shorter tracks. He also arrives in terrific form with two top 10s and another two top 25s in his last five starts.

Top 5

Henrik Norlander (+1800) … Shocker, I know. But in all seriousness, those odds for this finish genuinely are surprising. Here we have a ball-striker’s ball-striker who has made more money at The RSM Classic than any other tournament except for the Sanderson Farms Championship. He was among the victims of a playoff in 2016 and rose for a T5 in 2019. The Swede also has been noisy for a few months. Since the ISCO Championship in mid-July, he’s 9-for-12 worldwide with two T8s among five top 25s.

Top 10

Matt Wallace (+300) … In backyard competitions like this one for so many in the field, you could do much worse than to hurl all of your units into this market. It’s bursting with possibilities in whom you’re more likely to trust because of the local connections who have proven it over time. The Brit certainly does not fit that profile but he’s alongside the likes of Brian Harman and Harris English with the same odds. Unlike those two townies, Wallace does not have a top 10 in the tournament; in fact, in three appearances, he’s fared no better than T37 in his debut in 2020. But what he does have is serious momentum. Since ending his FedExCup season at the Wyndham Championship, the 34-year-old cashed eight times in as many starts on his native DP World Tour. The flourish included a victory and a T3 among seven top 25s, and he landed at 14th in the Race to Dubai to earn an exemption into The Open Championship. And while he’s 133rd in the FedExCup, he’s fully exempt through next season as a winner, so his focus can remain on the task at hand and free of concern for the impact of the result.

Top 20

Lee Hodges (+350) … I’ve been wanting to wedge him into Sleepers lately, so the wait is over. I’d love to have reached for a top 10 (at +700), but he’s had only one of those this season. Wallace presents a more compelling case, anyway. However, Hodges’ lone top 10 occurred just a month ago at the Black Desert Championship (T8). With a T16 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in his last start, he has five top 20s in 2024. Does his best work from tee to green, so this expectation relies on an elevated volume of scoring opportunities.

Top 40

Kevin Kisner (+230) … While it’d be wild for him to do in this market what Rafael Campos achieved last week in this space (at +250), all bets were on when I found the 2015 champion with these odds for this finish. Early during Campos’ run for his breakthrough victory at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, Kisner played a game of Turn Back the Clock with his putter. It had him just three strokes back of the 36-hole lead and two swings clear of the eventual winner. The weekend wasn’t as kind but Kisner’s T29 is his best PGA TOUR finish since the same at – you guessed it – Sea Island two years ago. Until last year’s edition when runner-up Mackenzie Hughes zoomed by, Kisner was the tournament’s all-time earnings leader. In addition to his own breakthrough victory here, he has a playoff loss (2020) and another trio of top 10s.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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