Sleeper Picks: Black Desert Championship

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Matti Schmid (+5000) … Just like last week, the odds to win the Black Desert Championship ascend more gradually than usual in the absence of an obvious favorite. Yet, Kevin Yu was +10000 to prevail pre-tournament at BetMGM, and with 106 of the 132 who competed at the Sanderson Farms Championship making the trip to southern Utah, there’s no reason to advise limiting your reach. Still, for the purposes of keeping it inside the leather, so to speak, I’m returning to a couple of familiar faces for the first two bets among the Sleepers. Schmid is fresh off a T16 at The Country Club of Jackson for what is his fourth top 20 during an 11-for-12 stretch worldwide. He’s also +200 for a Top 20 this week, which is insurance with an attractive kickback.

Top 5

Justin Lower (+750) … Although he’s not making his debut in Sleepers this season, he’s been more visible among the "Tap-ins" in the Golfbet Insider that publishes on Wednesdays. And for good reason. The 35-year-old arrives having cashed in eight consecutive starts. He finished T28 last week but did so with eight birdies during a 65 on Sunday. He’s inside the top 30 on the PGA TOUR in both Greens in Regulation and Strokes Gained: Putting, and he has two top-five finishes this year. Five touts for this finish have delivered this season, although Lower wasn’t among them. Yet.

Top 10

Patrick Fishburn (+275) … Given these relatively short odds and outstanding form over the last few months, there’s a legitimate argument as to why he wasn’t in the Power Rankings. That’s fair, and especially for a native Utahn and BYU product. There’s a special connection and pride to being able to compete in this tournament as a PGA TOUR member. Indeed, the 32-year-old hasn’t been just one of the most impressive rookies this season, but his record since a T4 (with fellow Beehive State native Zac Blair, also in this week’s field) has sparkled on its own. It includes another three top 10s, all in his last five starts.

Top 20

Ben Kohles (+275) … I took a peek at K.H. Lee at +300, but Kohles presents a little more punch. He’s among the leaders on the PGA TOUR in generating scoring opportunities, but inconsistency in converting on those chances helps explain why he’s not shorter. However, en route to a T16 at The Country Club of Jackson, he ranked T5 in greens hit and 12th on pouring in those chances for par breakers. It was his fourth top 20 of the season, none of which consecutively, but the 34-year-old has displayed a penchant for keeping the pedal down when on the Korn Ferry Tour, so this investment includes some belief that he’ll activate that mechanism relative to this field at this time of year.

Top 40

Austin Smotherman (+140) … You gotta hand it to the 30-year-old from California. Despite options, non-winners on conditional status often can have the roughest roads to navigate because playing time is sporadic on the PGA TOUR and woven around commitments on the Korn Ferry Tour. To wit, he’s made a dozen TOUR starts in 2024 on top of 11 on the secondary circuit. The thing is, he’s been more consistent at this level with 11 paydays, three of which went for a top 40, the best of the bunch a T7 at the Procore Championship. He’s logged 42 rounds, short of the threshold to rank officially with other members, but he’d otherwise be positioned highly in many ball-striking metrics. With unfamiliar greens at Black Desert Resort, his is the preferred profile, so to snag plus value for a guy who doesn’t miss cuts is a bonus.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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