Sleeper Picks: Procore Championship

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Mark Hubbard (+6000) … As a non-winner on the PGA TOUR, this defies conventional wisdom because there’s been only one breakthrough champion of the Procore Championship in the last five editions – Sahith Theegala last year. The spin is that first-time winners are 1-for-1 since the tournament has launched the new FedExCup Fall. With shifts in the dynamics of membership status for the following season, scheduling and other forces, the tournament is ripe for another coronation. There’s also the reality that Hubbard himself defied the conventional wisdom of requiring the open qualifier to gain entry. That’s because he forgot to register to play. In response to the gaffe, all he did was medal at Yolo Fliers Club with a 7-under 65. He’s cashed six times at Silverado Resort’s North Course, thrice for a top 25, all since 2019. He’s also fared nicely down the coast on the Poa annua of Pebble Beach where he’s also made six cuts, the best of which a T4 early this year. He also noted on Monday that he’ll have considerable support from family and friends this week.

Top 5

Patrick Fishburn (+1100) … In case you forgot, the rookie blazed a trail over the summer with two top 10s and another pair of top 25s on the PGA TOUR. The highlight was a solo third in California at the Barracuda Championship. Run it back a bit and all of his last seven paydays have been top 25s (spanning four missed cuts), explained by the fact that he leads the circuit in third-round scoring average. He also added a T17 on the Korn Ferry Tour in June. Currently seventh on the PGA TOUR in Stroke Gained: Off-the-Tee, fourth in Greens in Regulation, 31st in Scrambling and T9 in Par-5 Scoring. Oh, and in the most recent three editions of the Procore, four rookies have recorded a top five – Mito Pereira (third, 2021), Taylor Montgomery (third, 2022), S.H. Kim (second, 2023) and Eric Cole (fourth, 2023) – so there’s also a trend in his favor.

Top 10

Nick Taylor (+550) … With two victories since the last Presidents Cup, including the historic title at the RBC Canadian Open 15 months ago, it’s disappointing that the native of Canada didn’t crack the roster for the Internationals at this year’s edition of the biennial competition. But he’s a professional and he’ll soldier forward. There will be another chance to qualify in two years. The optimist’s viewpoint is that the pressure is off to perform now. He’ll reconnect with the competitive juices that shoved him into the conversation in the first place and it shouldn’t take long at Silverado where he’s 5-for-5 since 2017 with three top 10s, thus this tout. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s thrived on Poa annua at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a win (2020) among four top 20s.

Top 20

Chad Ramey (+350) … Neal Shipley at +260 for the same bet is appealing but I don’t mind the stretch to Ramey for this kickback. After missing the cut in his first two visits, he delivered a T19 last year during a similar groove in which you’ll find him now. He walked off the FedExCup Regular Season with four straight paydays, two of which were for a top 25. Already among the leaders in hitting fairways and sinking putts, an improvement in his approach game has generated a consistently stronger form.

Top 40

Stewart Cink (+190) … It matters not that he’s 51 years of age, what matters is everything else. For starters, he took the title at Silverado Resort in 2020. While the tall drink of water never has had to worry about sending it off the tee, the course won’t make him feel older, just the opposite. It’s a relatively cozy track on which he can keep pace. He also couldn’t ask for a better on-ramp what with a win at The Ally Challenge and a solo third at the Ascension Charity Classic as his most recent results on the PGA TOUR Champions. That he’s this far into plus value for this finish presents as free money.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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