Sleeper Picks: FedEx St. Jude Championship

NOTE: For three consecutive tournaments, Rob identifies golfers needing a good performance to advance in the FedExCup Playoffs. In this second edition, all five below enter the FedEx St. Jude Championship outside the top 50 in points. Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings and recommended bets are independent of targets to advance.

Outright

Maverick McNealy (+8000) … Zeroing in on only those seeded 51-70, Viktor Hovland (57th) is the standout, but he’s only +3500 to win and he’s the 2023 FedExCup champion, so he’s not the right fit for this context. The problem with McNealy, who’s 59th and only three weeks removed from a season-best T3 at the 3M Open, is that he’s a non-winner on the PGA TOUR. In the history of the FedExCup Playoffs, only Camilo Villegas (2008 BMW Championship) and Will Zalatoris (2022 FedEx St. Jude) recorded their breakthrough victories in the series. However, there is the layer that it wouldn’t be wrong to say that McNealy is at TPC Southwind on house money after opening the season on a Major Medical Extension. While he fulfilled it with considerable time to spare, he has to feel validated for remaining patient and committed to his recovery, so there’s only more to gain and nothing to lose. In his only prior appearance at TPC Southwind, he was upended by a third-round 75 en route to a T31 in 2022. His other three rounds: 67, 67, 65.

Top 5

Victor Perez (+2000) … This year’s chip and a chair. OK, so it’s not exactly the same, but he’d likely need this finish to advance from the bottom of the qualifiers. If you include his inspiring fourth-place finish at the Olympics in his native France, the 70-seed has three top fives this year, so he’s not uncomfortable in the hunt. Case in point, his scoring average improves with every round, and he’s 11th on the PGA TOUR in final-round scoring. Although a first-time TOUR member this year, this is his third appearance at TPC Southwind. He competed in the World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational on the course in 2020 and 2021.

Top 10

Ben Griffin (+600) … As the second-year TOUR member has navigated this season, he’s been among the shortest on the board when he plays. It’s reflected respect that he’s earned, but as he grapples with a more robust array of talent at TPC Southwind, the kickbacks are more favorable. His game is ready to reward. On the season, he’s gone for four top 10s and another four top 20s to open the Playoffs at 56th in points. He’s fresh off a T7 at the Wyndham Championship where he was up and down, but he survived the challenge of the schedule disrupted by weather. Overcame his default weakness of the tee in his debut here last year to finish T24, and now he knows where to miss.

Top 20

Erik van Rooyen (+333) … It doesn’t hurt that the South African is 17th on the International points list for the Presidents Cup because this could be his last chance to impress Mike Weir for a captain’s pick. The 58-seed has traded top 25s with results outside the top 40 all season, so as the owner of one of the most potent combinations of hitting greens and sinking putts, that he’s promised four rounds to give it all he’s got presents more potential impact. In his only prior look at TPC Southwind, he finished T20 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude in 2020, also was a limited-field, no-cut contest like this week’s.

Top 30

Seamus Power (+125) … This is like threading a needle for plus value, but it’ll do. The Irishman is the only Playoffs qualifier without a top 10 this season, so the fact that he’s regressed to the mean and still finds himself at 66th in points is tasty. He’s recorded eight top 30s in 21 starts, including a steady T28 in the full-field Wyndham Championship last week. He’s also connected for a pair of top 30s at TPC Southwind, back when it hosted the full-field FedEx St. Jude Classic in 2017 and 2018. If you’re worried about last year’s T66, remember that he was dealing with an injured right hip that he rested the last four months after his run in the Playoffs ended at the BMW Championship.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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