Sleeper Picks: Olympics

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Gold medal winner

Guido Migliozzi (+8000) … As usual in weeks like this, this bet must be tagged with the disclaimer that Scottie Scheffler also is in the field – Xander Schauffele, too – so better beware. However, Migliozzi has done something neither of them have – win a golf tournament at Le Golf National. And it was only two years ago when the Italian prevailed at the FedEx Open de France. The 27-year-old also won the KLM Open just six weeks ago. He’s among the most balanced performers in the field.

Top 5

Thomas Detry (+750) … As he creeps into his prime, the 31-year-old Belgian also continues to step forward methodically on the biggest stages. With a T14 at the U.S. Open in June, he cracked the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking for the first time. It was his third straight top 15 in a major, the highlight a T4 at the PGA Championship in May, which is one of three top fives in the last six months. He’s also no stranger to Le Golf National where he’s recorded a T8 (in 2019) among three top 25s in the annual DP World Tour event. As a phenomenal putter and a scorer, he possesses the potent combination that we love (and we need) for this bet.

Top 10

Thorbjørn Olesen (+400) … It’d be too easy and unfair to judge his 2024 as disappointing. The Dane, who now is 34 years of age, has been attempting to navigate his return to the PGA TOUR as one of the DP World Tour transfers, and he’s gone without a top 10. However, when he’s on his home circuit, he’s a force, which explains why he qualified for TOUR membership in the first place. Back on European soil this week, he lands at Le Golf National where two of his five appearances in the FedEx Open de France resulted in a top 10. Another yielded a T20. He also contributed one point to the victorious home team in the 2018 Ryder Cup on the course.

Top 20

Matti Schmid (+220) … My heart was to reserve this bet for Victor Perez, the other Frenchman in the field. (Matthieu Pavon appears in the Power Rankings.) However, Perez is just +125, so my head pivoted to the 26-year-old German. Schmid rides roller coasters, so he’s among the more obvious among up-and-comers for whom an extension of form is expected when he’s near the crest of the hill. He hasn’t rested since a T15 at the KLM Open six weeks ago, but he’s managed a pair of top 15s among five cuts made. The best of the bunch was a T12 on Sunday at the 3M Open. Although he’s crossed the Atlantic Ocean five times in the last two months, he’s young enough not to allow any fatigue get the best of him, and especially not while representing his country in a competition like this one. The bonus is that he’s made four starts at Le Golf National with a personal-best T16 in what was a much bigger field in 2019.

Top Oceania

Ryan Fox (+275 at DraftKings) … This has as much to do with his consistently strong form upon arrival as it does the hit-and-miss that the shorter Min Woo Lee (+175) and Jason Day (+180) present in the group. Fox has cashed in his last nine starts worldwide, four of which going for a top 25. His T25 at The Open Championship also clinched his second consecutive year of making the cut in every major. The Kiwi is one of four in the field making his third appearance in the Olympics and the only among the golfers in this market with experience in the Games. He’s also 3-for-5 at Le Golf National with a solo sixth in 2017 and a T18 in 2019. Among the others, only Lee has pegged it here before, finishing T64 last year.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM unless otherwise indicated.

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