Sleeper Picks: The Open

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Justin Rose (+15000) … Hey, stranger things have happened and you know it. The veteran from England hasn’t been in form for most of 2024 and he’d end the trend of seven consecutive champions at Royal Troon having won earlier in the calendar year, but he’s been a man for the moment his entire career. Of course, he crashed onto the scene as a 17-year-old who finished T4 at Royal Birkdale in 1998, but he’s also won the U.S. Open (2013) among numerous premier tournaments, the gold medal in the 2016 Olympics and the FedExCup in 2018.

When he won his last PGA TOUR title at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am early in 2023, he said that it proved that he still had a game good enough to win when everything is in sync. Now 43 years of age and in his 21st Open appearance for which he medaled at 36-hole final qualifying to secure, by the way, he’s in the pocket of the older guard that has clutched the claret jug semi-regularly over the years, with or without proper form upon arrival.

Top 5

Sungjae Im (+800) … If there was a Power Rankings for those snubbed from the Power Rankings, he’d be No. 1. Indeed, he’s had a rough go in the majors this year, missing the cut in each of the first three, but his performances in all of his last eight non-majors has been spectacular. It includes a successful title defense in his native South Korea, another three top-four finishes and the rest top 15s. Last week’s T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open served double duty as an extension of his blistering form as well as a primer for his first look at Royal Troon.

Top 10

Akshay Bhatia (+650) … The über-talented 22-year-old will be stacking top 10s and better on top of themselves in the majors sooner than later, so why not start the pile in his Open Championship debut? He couldn’t ask for better form in the short- and long-range. The lefty captured his second PGA TOUR title at the Valero Texas Open in April and arrived at Royal Troon with progressive improvement that culminated in a co-runner-up – albeit painful for how he finished – at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. In support of the elevated expectation is the fact that he’s proven to adapt to additional challenges, but his default profile as a top producer in the wind on open tracks by the sea meshes seamlessly with this week’s test. The fact that it’s a major is just a coincidence.

Top 20

Matthieu Pavon (+450) … Like Justin Rose above, the 31-year-old Frenchman also is an eye-popping +15000 to win but his odds for a Top 20 are longer. (Rose is +400 for the same.) Unlike Rose and fitting for the trend at Royal Troon, Pavon has a victory earlier this year. He broke through for his first PGA TOUR title at the Farmers Insurance Open. He’s since fortified his clubhouse lead for the Arnold Palmer Award as the Rookie of the Year with a pair of top fives, including a solo fifth at the U.S. Open. He also placed T12 in his Masters debut, so he’s capitalized on the opportunities triggered by the late-season surge on the DP World Tour in 2023.

Top 40

Matteo Manassero (+200) … He’s back! The Italian is just 31 years of age, so he’s not quite Roy Hobbs, but he’s going to have separate legions of fans given how long his career slump lasted. A piece of evidence is that this is his seventh appearance in The Open and yet the most recent since the last time that Royal Troon hosted in 2016. Like all but Rose above, Manassero also has a victory in 2024. It was at the Jonsson Workwear Open in South Africa in March where he connected for his fifth DP World Tour title and first in 11 years.

Reining in his irons has been the key in his return to our consciousness and a primary contributor to nine top 40s this year. He was among the leaders in numerous metrics for his approach game en route to a T15 in last week’s tune-up at The Renaissance Club.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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