Sleeper Picks: Genesis Scottish Open

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Jordan Smith (+12500) … It could be argued successfully that The Genesis Scottish Open would be wide open without Rory McIlroy (+750) and Xander Schauffele (+800). So, if you’re keen on leaning into one of the other 154 in the field, you’re going to latch onto value. Smith is on the short list of the most potentially impactful. For one, the 31-year-old Brit is fresh off a T2 at the BMW International Open where his tee-to-green was on display. It’s one of three top-four finishes that have lifted him to 19th in the Race to Dubai. He’s also a two-time winner on the DP World Tour and has appeared in every edition of this tournament at The Renaissance Club. Both of his last two trips resulted in a top 25.

Top 5

Min Woo Lee (+500) … He could’ve won the Rocket Mortgage Classic, but then it would’ve spoiled his kickback for this value for his first of two weeks in Scotland. The T2 in Detroit was a manifestation of months of keeping almost all plates spinning. Four sub-70s confirmed what we’ve already known about him – that he’s fearless no matter the headwinds. The Aussie also is a former winner at The Renaissance Club. That occurred in a playoff in 2021 after signing for another four blistering scores. Both victims that day are in the Power Rankings this week – Matt Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry.

Top 10

Matthieu Pavon (+550) … One of the best stories of the last nine months has been a page-turner. Since scaling to the PGA TOUR with a late-season surge that included his breakthrough victory on the DP World Tour last October, the Frenchman has another win (Farmers Insurance Open) among five top 10s worldwide, the latest of which is a solo fifth at the U.S. Open. His T12 at the Masters didn’t help the learning curve for all debutants at Augusta National, but that’s been his narrative en route to his position as the clubhouse leader for the Arnold Palmer Award as the Rookie of the Year. Currently leading the circuit in average distance of putts converted per round, which also is illogical given his inexperience. He’s been a regular at The Renaissance Club where his high-water mark was a T12 in 2021.

Top 20

Calum Hill (+550) … This is an aggressive send, but as it concerns natives of Scotland in the Race to Dubai on which he’s 25th, only Ewen Ferguson is slotted higher at 16th, and the latest winner on the DP World Tour appears in the Power Rankings. Hill recently punctuated consecutive top 20s with a T2 at the Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed (that co-led the men’s field), thus the support for this reach. The terrific putter is 4-for-5 at The Renaissance Club. His best finish is a T25, but he achieved it in last year’s edition.

Top 40

Alexander Björk (+240) … It’s been a learning experience for the 34-year-old from Sweden. He parlayed what was his best season on the DP World Tour in 2023 into a PGA TOUR card in 2024, but his talent hasn’t translated as well as others in his transfer class. He hasn’t played a PGA TOUR event since the PGA Championship in mid-May, and his only commitment in the interim yielded a T12 at the Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed. That could be the spark for a turnaround in the second half and The Renaissance Club slides in as a no-brainer for him to retain momentum. He’s 5-for-5 on the course with a trio of top 40s, including a T35 last year.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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