Sleeper Picks: John Deere Classic

Note: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Andrew Novak (+8000) … The next outright Sleeper to win the tournament for which he’s touted in this space will be the first, so you know that going in. It’s also been five years (and four editions) since the last time a first-time winner was crowned at the John Deere Classic (Dylan Frittelli). Despite those headwinds of history, the 29-year-old non-winner is worthy of the challenge. Formerly and primarily a short-lister only on paspalum putting surfaces, he’s proven that his game travels. He rolls in with top 20s in his last two starts and six on the season, three of which were consecutive top 10s early on. Overall, he’s 16th on the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation, T14 in proximity, 18th in conversion percentage inside 10 feet and 35th in adjusted scoring – also 2-for-2 at TPC Deere Run with a scoring average of 68.63 on the par 71.

Top 5

Mark Hubbard (+850) … To fulfill this lofty expectation requires a strong start and the faith that he’ll make the cut. Well, he’s 36th in first-round scoring, fourth in second-round scoring and hasn’t missed a cut in 19 starts this year. Only two resulted in a top five, and only one of those was on his own ball and where you’d guess it’d happen given his success and personal history – at Pebble Beach (T4). Form of late has been sketchy but he’s 3-for-3 at TPC Deere Run since 2021 with a T13 in 2022, a T6 last year and a scoring average of 67.44 in his last nine rounds.

Top 10

Neal Shipley (+500) … I believe. The recently turned pro, who was low amateur at both the Masters and the U.S. Open, was endorsed at +500 for a top 20 in the Golfbet Insider for the Rocket Mortgage Classic and delivered a T20 despite closing bogey-par-bogey for a Sunday 72. He clearly wasn’t pleased about the finish but investors on board have zero complaints. He wants more, so let’s stay in our seats on the bandwagon and devote at least a fraction of a unit for the next rung on the ladder on BetMGM’s board.

Top 20

Nick Hardy (+450) … Hardy is among the regional contingent for whom the fans will be cheering a little louder than others. The native of Northbrook, Illinois (north of Chicago), and the product of the University of Illinois is 4-for-4 at TPC Deere Run. His best finish is last year’s T21. He’s getting attractive plus value for this week’s target in part because he has just one top 20 in the last 12 months, and that was just three weeks after the 2023 edition of the John Deere at the 3M Open (T13). There’s also the potential that he still has a chip on his shoulder for just missing out on qualifying for the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club (south of Chicago) last season, so this is his most recent chance to impress family and friends en masse and in person. (If you’re not sold, consider him instead for a Top 40 at +160.)

Top 40

David Skinns (+130) … Winning cards are built with guys like the Englishman, so it’s always a no-brainer to go back to the well. In his only previous appearance in Sleepers, he was +225 for a Top 40 at the RBC Canadian Open. On cue, he came through with a T21. The 42-year-old has since added a T17 last week in Detroit to make it three top 25s in his last four starts. In his only prior appearance at TPC Deere Run, he missed the cut in 2022 but rebounded from an opening 77 with an eight-birdie 64 in the second round. So, now that he has the promise to return as a PGA TOUR member, he’s poised to connect the dots from the past to the present. Sits 10th on TOUR in greens hit and leads the circuit in par-3 scoring.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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