Sleeper Picks: Rocket Mortgage Classic

Note: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Maverick McNealy (+2800) … The first order of business is to review the field to ensure that Scottie Scheffler isn’t in it, for if he were, then this bet doesn’t stand a chance. Annnd … check! (For the record, Scheffler’s next scheduled start is The Open Championship on July 18-21.) With that priority aside, McNealy’s odds to prevail aren’t particularly attractive, especially as a non-winner on the PGA TOUR, but it’s reflective of the ebb and flow relative to constructs of fields. You’ll find value much deeper on the BetMGM’s boards this week than you did at the Travelers Championship. However, he’s deserved the consideration for a fraction of a unit to break through given a high level of form over the past four months. That includes three progressively better top 25s upon arrival, the tail of the trio a T7 at the RBC Canadian Open. He’s also connected for a pair at Detroit Golf Club and he’s ninth on TOUR in adjusted scoring.

Top 5

Matt Wallace (+750) … This projection is a sum of his parts, although the parts are pretty good on their own, anyway. Given the promise of a three-week break from the PGA TOUR this month, he returned to the DP World Tour and finished T15 at the KLM Open on Sunday, so he’s tuned up to sprint toward the FedExCup Playoffs. At 19th on TOUR in greens in regulation, his profile will be given the opportunity to step forward in shootouts for which that’s the first objective. He’s cashed in six straight starts worldwide, so confidence won’t be a roadblock. He’s also seventh in par-5 scoring, which never hurts on stock par 72s like Detroit Golf Club where he’s 3-for-3 with a T12 (2020), a T10 (2022) and a scoring average of 69.17 in a dozen rounds.

Top 10

Troy Merritt (+900) … The veteran has just one top 10 this season (T9, THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson), so that explains longer odds for another this week. What’s probably missing from the algorithm is how often he’s proven to perform under greater pressure deep into seasons. He hasn’t needed to every year, but he’s delivered every time he’s felt the heat. At 138th in the FedExCup, he’s in that position again and there’s no better spot than the Rocket Mortgage Classic for another surge to begin. In the last four editions, he recorded a top 20 in each, including a T8 in 2020 and a P2 in 2021. His scoring average across those 16 rounds is 68.

Top 20

Chandler Phillips (+350) … This endorsement is primarily about momentum, but he’s flashed electric form at times throughout the season, so it’s possible that things are merely manifesting right now. With six top 25s in his PGA TOUR membership debut, including in his last two starts, I have him slotted as best rookie without a victory in my weekly Rookie Ranking on X. Evidence that his game improves nearer the hole is the fact that he’s T9 in proximity on approach and among the most efficient with the putter.

Top 40

Henrik Norlander (+220) … He’s been limited to eight starts on the PGA TOUR this season due to conditional status, so, like Wallace above, Norlander also kept warm on the DP World Tour earlier this month. After missing the cut at the Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed in his native Sweden, he placed T21 in Amsterdam on Sunday. But when he’s been able to peg it here, he’s cashed six times, four of which for a top 40 on his own ball. His knack to attack flag sticks plays up in shootouts, so it’s not surprising that he’s 4-for-4 in Detroit with three top 40s and a scoring average of 69.69.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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