Sleeper Picks: RBC Canadian Open

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

OUTRIGHT

Davis Thompson (+5500) … While the drought of first-time winners at the RBC Canadian Open isn’t as long as last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge, it’s still been 15 years since Nathan Green was the most recent to break through in Canada’s national championship (at Glen Abbey Golf Club). Unlike the annual stop at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, this week’s tournament is nomadic, so it’s a different kind of impressive for how there hasn’t been another coronation since the Aussie. Thompson has finished second twice in 54 PGA TOUR starts as a professional, more recently at the Myrtle Beach Classic three weeks ago, albeit six shots back of Chris Gotterup, who is the most recent of seven first-time winners this season. Thompson is a star in the making and currently sixth in adjusted scoring with eight top 25s in 2024.

TOP 5

Erik van Rooyen (+800) … As of midday Tuesday, 35 in the field of 156 at Hamilton Golf and Country Club competed here in 2019. He was among them as a top-10 exemption via the PGA Championship. The South African opened with 6-under 64 and finished T20 in this tournament that week. Since his emotional win in Mexico last November, he’s kept the pedal down and has added a pair of top fives, the more recent of which just three weeks ago at the Myrtle Beach Classic (T4). Overall, he has three top 10s and another four top 25s this season, so he’s been performing as well as expected. The analytics help explain why from a technical standpoint. Currently 33rd on the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation, 17th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 20th in converting GIR into par breakers, the combination of which plays way up in a shootout.

TOP 10

Kevin Yu (+600) … Of the 20 golfers with as many as four top 10s this season, he might be the most unlikely given that he’s 81st in the FedExCup, easily the lowest-ranked among them. Of course, therein lies his value and attraction. His most recent top 10 was a T4 two starts ago at the Myrtle Beach Classic. He’s not higher in the FedExCup because he relies heavily on a cooperative putter, but the 25-year-old can golf his ball. He’s 12th in total driving, fifth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, sixth in greens hit, T14 in proximity and T26 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Given that the greens at Hamilton Golf and Country Club are relatively unfamiliar and new since the restoration, ball-striking is at a premium. That feeds into his proven firepower.

TOP 20

Brice Garnett (+450) … Connecting these dots requires no more than an understanding of his strength and its fit for the test. Forever one of the most underrated ball-strikers on the PGA TOUR, the 40-year-old found paydirt once again at the Puerto Rico Open in March. Both of his wins on the circuit have occurred on paspalum greens but his ability to control his ball flight and shape shots with so much regularity demands respect (and a unit) for this finish in his return to Hamilton Golf and Country Club, itself a payoff for shot-makers. He recently finished T18 at Harbour Town Golf Links, renowned for its requirement to work the ball both ways. And neither course asks the golfer to pull the driver often. Although the program to remove many trees on this week’s site was necessary, the century-plus-old design tipping at just 7,084 yards tosses a bone to the older guard who can’t win long-drive contests.

TOP 40

David Skinns (+225) … Sticking with the talent of a certain age, the 42-year-old from England seemingly has played with freedom and ease since a T4 at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. No doubt much of what he’s experienced since feels like a bonus as he’s piled on with six more paydays, including a pair of top 20s on his own ball. Largely balanced and stronger than you might think throughout his bag, it’s a pulse of his comfort level in his second shot on the PGA TOUR. He’s sharpest on approach with a kicker that he ranks T2 in par-3 scoring. The quartet of the one-shotters at Hamilton Golf and Country Club averaged over par in 2019, so he has an edge.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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