Sleeper Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

OUTRIGHT

Andrew Putnam (+5500) … Long-time readers of my contributions might recall the years when I cited age and total appearances beside every golfer in the Power Rankings for the Charles Schwab Challenge. It was the only tournament given that treatment because it was uncanny how close so many winners came to the bull’s-eye. In 2021, Jason Kokrak split the arrow with his victory in his seventh appearance and one week short of his 36th birthday, both of which the averages of the previous 19 to slip on the plaid jacket at Colonial Country Club for the first time. Sam Burns (2022) and Emiliano Grillo (2023) prevailed since, albeit much younger than the ages of many in the sample size, but Putnam is 35 and in his seventh appearance. Boom. A personal-best T3 in 2019 is one of three top 20s in the tournament. He’s recorded two top 10s among four top 20s this year and ranks 41st in greens in regulation, 27th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 10th in Scrambling, fifth in Bogey Avoidance and sixth in Par-4 Scoring, the last of which plays up on a stock par 70.

TOP 5

Aaron Rai (+900) … With Viktor Hovland becoming the fourth this season to fulfill this expectation at the PGA Championship, it only makes sense to continue to pound the zone. Rai leads the PGA TOUR in fairways hit and slots inside the top 15 in greens in regulation, proximity to the hole and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. So, he’s also fulfilling the expectation as a renowned ball-striker, but he was even better en route to a T12 in his second appearance Colonial last year in finishing inside the top five in all of those measurements. And it was only two starts back in at-times challenging winds of Texas when he rose for a T4 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

TOP 10

Emiliano Grillo (+900) … In the previous iteration of Sleepers, he wouldn’t qualify as the defending champion of the tournament, but the world of betting doesn’t care as much about that. It’s all about the value, and his is attractive. Although the feels of walking around Colonial as the last winner doesn’t suck, the test also presents as favorable for him to get his groove back. After a strong open to 2024, he’s gone five starts with three paydays, none of which for a top 50. THE PLAYERS Championship (T54) and the first two majors (both MC) were among them. In eight consecutive appearances at Colonial, he has three top 10s and another two top 25s. The sightlines are familiar and his putting almost always responds no matter how that fleeting skill has fared upon arrival.

TOP 20

Kevin Tway (+550) … This replicates the tout for the Wells Fargo Championship where he finished T43. He had snuck into that field via the Aon Swing 5 but he’s in the Charles Schwab Challenge via his position in the FedExCup standings (104th). So, while this isn’t a Signature Event like the former, it’s still an invitational that rewards recent play over membership status (Past Champion). Because he’s reconnected with the kind of form that yielded multiple starts in three consecutive appearances in the FedExCup Playoffs (2017-19), it stands to reason that the outcome will align at Colonial where he finished a respective T18, T5 and T19 in those same seasons.

TOP 40

Mac Meissner (+200) … If the U.S. Open was next week, the PGA TOUR rookie probably doesn’t get this endorsement, but the third major of the season isn’t until mid-June, so here he is. Why does that matter, you might wonder? Well, he shared runner-up honors at Final Qualifying in Dallas on Monday, so he has mojo entering his debut at the Charles Schwab Challenge. But he already had mojo with top 30s in four of his last seven starts on his own ball. As of midday Tuesday, the 25-year-old would be first alternate if not for a sponsor exemption to secure entry.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.