Sleeper Picks: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

S.H. Kim (+10000) … Although April tilted toward rewarding the shortest odds on the board among winners and thus a diversion from the theme that opened the season, he would not be that at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. This also would require the 25-year-old from South Korea to sharpen his irons. However, he’s twice a winner abroad, so a victory this week would be unprecedented for him only on the PGA TOUR. He debuted at TPC Craig Ranch last year where a third-round 74 spoiled an otherwise strong performance, so there’s an opportunity for redemption. He recently finished T14 in the Hill Country of the Valero Texas Open. But again, holding his own on approach is the key. He’s 27th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting and sixth in converting greens in regulation into par breakers, so he’s near the top of the class as it concerns the second component of the shootout.

Top 5

Thomas Detry (+700) … While a T8 alongside Robert MacIntyre at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans is valuable, the lefty from Scotland arguably needed it more than the Belgian. Detry has enjoyed a more lucrative experience as a sophomore, already having matched his rookie season’s total of three top 10s. The first two of 2024 were top fives, thus the reach for another in his first appearance at TPC Craig Ranch. He comps a little like S.H. Kim above except that Detry’s mid-range game is stronger all the while still slotting 18th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 10th in converting GIR into par breakers. So, if compelled, swap. Detry is +4000 as the outright and Kim is +1800 for a top five.

Top 10

Peter Kuest (+650) … He’s at it again and it’s come full circle. The 25-year-old parlayed surviving a 5-for-1 playoff in the four-spotter at the Valero Texas Open into a T10. That top 10 paid forward into a T9 at the Corales Puntacana Championship, which spilled into a top-10 exemption at TPC Craig Ranch … which is where he launched his surge a year ago with a T14. He led last year’s field in total driving and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and he also ranked T15 in greens in regulation and 14th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Oh, he walked it off with a nine-birdie 63.

Top 20

Doug Ghim (+275) … Sometimes the absence of inspiring form is exactly what we want. This is one of those times. Since connecting five top 20s to conclude the astronomical winter, he’s just 2-for-4 and without a top 40 in individual competition. File that under small sample size. The product of the University of Texas has a pair of top 20s in this tournament, including a T19 at TPC Craig Ranch last year immediately following a similar skid. He remains among the strongest from tee to green and he doesn’t waste shots with the putter.

Top 40

Nico Echavarria (+225) … There are many candidates for this finish, but he’s remained the longest among the subset since the odds were released. (Others will appear in Wednesday’s Golfbet Insider.) He and Max Greyserman collaborated for a T4 at the Zurich Classic, but Echavarria has flashed form repeatedly in individual competition in his second season with a PGA TOUR card. All five of his top 60s among seven paydays are top 25s, including a T14 two weeks ago at the Corales Puntacana. Currently inside the top 50 on TOUR in greens in regulation, Strokes Gained: Putting, converting GIR in par breakers, par-3 scoring and par-4 scoring.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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