Sleeper Picks: RBC Heritage

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Taylor Moore (+6600) … When a guy keeps fulfilling targets as he did for a Top 5 at +900 for the Texas Children’s Houston Open (T2) and again for a Top 20 at +400 at the Masters (T20), both after an impressive T12 in his first-ever title defense at the Valspar Championship, is he really a Sleeper anymore? Better yet, because he keeps fulfilling the targets, there’s a progression that what the work is yielding must be piggybacked. So, here he is yet again, but this time to win. He debuted at the RBC Heritage last year with a T11 and he’s among the best on approach on the PGA TOUR this year. He’s also guaranteed a 16th consecutive payday, so he’s been in a groove for far longer than the recent surge.

Top 5

Tommy Fleetwood (+333) … In full disclosure, the Brit was supposed to be in the Power Rankings. I simply glossed over my handwritten note that he was one of the 15 to include. My shortlist was at 19 but I wound up including one of the four that I had cut. That’s OK because, while continuity over time is important for that weekly preview, 15 still is an arbitrary target. So, perhaps that’ll be a happy accident that’ll follow the purposeful likes of Will Zalatoris at The Genesis Invitational (+650), Taylor Moore at the Texas Children’s (+900) and Collin Morikawa (+750) as golfers who have converted on this bet in Sleepers in 2024. Now, Fleetwood is but sixth-shortest for the same at the RBC Heritage, but part of that is a product of the fact that there are only 69 golfers in play. The rest is all him. He’s 3-for-4 at Harbour Town with a personal-best T10 in 2022, and he’s on the bounce of a T7-T3 the last two weeks. Also, he was a winner earlier this year at the Dubai Invitational.

Top 10

Thomas Detry (+650) … While he’s rested since a co-runner-up at the Texas Children’s three weeks ago – his second top-four finish and fourth top 20 of his last eight, including a T4 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am where greens are similarly as small as Harbour Town’s – this is just as much about the overall fit for the track. En route to missing the cut in his debut last year, the course beat him up during his opening, 3-over 74, but among those who slammed trunks – well, gently lowered the liftgate via the key fob – no one scored lower than his 3-under 68 that followed. Proving that his game improves nearest the hole, he led the field at Memorial Park in scrambling.

Top 20

Tom Hoge (+200) … Focusing only on the golfers for whom the kickback is at least twice the outlay, the available subset is thin in a small field, but it was a bona fide surprise to find him in it. He’s cashed only twice in six appearances, but that he continues to return is proof that he’s fond of Harbour Town. With the guarantee of four rounds for the first time this week, whatever demons he fights about the place won’t be a factor as it concerns contributing to the season-long cause, but his form in 2024 has been strong enough to bury the demons for good, anyway. He arrives with a consecutive cuts-made streak of nine that includes two top 10s and another four top 20s. Also, inside the top 20 on TOUR in greens hit and adjusted scoring, and he’s No. 1 in proximity to the hole and par-3 scoring.

Top 30

Adam Svensson (+200) … With no cut and only 69 commits, BetMGM split the difference between a customary market for a Top 40 and presented this. And in a similar vein as the Top 20 market, the objective is to focus on the options that would double the return on investment. Among the dozen or so options is the Canadian in his third start, the first of which resulted in a T26 in a full field in 2022. He’s struggled of late but his skill set as a tee-to-green performer plays up at Harbour Town, so it’s not surprising that his scoring average in eight rounds on the par 71 is 69.38.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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