Sleeper Picks: Masters Tournament

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Chris Kirk (+17500) … Although it’d align with the theme of 2024, because the Masters Tournament rarely yields a longshot as its champion, it’s kind of absurd not to identify a shorter option who isn’t in my Power Rankings, but at some point, another longshot will be posing for photographs beside the 18th green as the sun sets on Sunday afternoon, because, well, golf. What Kirk is attempting to do this year is what defending champion Jon Rahm did last year – win both The Sentry and his first Masters in the same calendar year. Kirk prevailed at Kapalua just three months ago, and now he’s making his fifth appearance at Augusta National. Although his personal-best result is but a share of 20th place a distant 10 years ago, that he’s not a first-timer is key. But most importantly, he possesses his own perspective that keeps secondary how he performs inside the ropes behind the priorities on the outside. If you’re not familiar with his story of overcoming alcohol abuse and depression, do yourself a favor and read what his wife, Tahnee, wrote when Chris received the 2023 PGA TOUR Courage Award in November.

Top 5

Collin Morikawa (+750) … No matter the competition, the betting boards tend to loosen the leash even for multiple major champions who aren’t in form. While that’s understandable, it’s also appreciated because there isn’t a more insular environment for a scuffling stud to reconnect with what he does best than Augusta National. The course rewards experience and course success more than any other. Despite the intensity on so many levels, it’s still a warm embrace for everyone who has felt it before. He currently checks a couple of boxes that would support the reach, but the unquantifiable is the most important. He’s 4-for-4 in the tournament with a solo fifth in 2022 and a T10 last year.

Top 10

Corey Conners (+450) … The Canadian isn’t struggling like Morikawa but he’s coming up on eight months without a last top 10, yet he hasn’t missed a cut in almost 10 months. So, the ingredients are in place for Conners, but he hasn’t been cooking at the right temperature. Currently inside the top 20 on the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation, proximity to the hole and par-5 scoring. Meanwhile, and very much like Morikawa, Augusta National has been a reliable source of renewal and repeat. In four editions since the November edition in 2020, Conners has three top 10s.

Top 20

Taylor Moore (+400) … After fulfilling his projection as a Sleeper for a Top 5 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, this expectation in his second start of the Masters (T39, 2023) isn’t asking him to run it all the way back, but it’s leaning on his momentum upon arrival to take advantage of a nice kickback despite the smaller field. Prior to the close call at Memorial Park, he finished T12 in his title defense at the Valspar Championship. The fearless 30-year-old is 12th on the PGA TOUR in greens in regulation. He’s also cashed in 14 consecutive starts, so his nose to put himself in contention to pay off the prop is reliable.

Top 40

Christo Lamprecht (+250) … With a field of only 89, plus value worth chasing isn’t as attractive as usual, so consider riding shotgun with the world’s top-ranked amateur and current No. 2 in PGA TOUR University. The tall drink of water from South Africa is one of five amateurs who qualified, as the winner of The Amateur Championship last year. If you can find a prop for who will lead the field in driving distance, plop a full unit down on him, but the more serious business is his ability to compete. En route to a T44 at the Alfred Dunhill Championship at home in December, he sat T3 and two strokes off the lead at the midpoint, and he already has made a cut in a major (T74, 2023 Open Championship). If you're curious about how often amateurs crack the top 40 at the Masters, it’s happened four times in the last five editions, the most recent of which was Sam Bennet (T16) a year ago.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.