Sleeper Picks: Texas Children's Houston Open

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Mackenzie Hughes (+5000) … When a guy is fresh off a T3 like he is at the Valspar Championship, he doesn’t present as a classic Sleeper the very next week. However, this bet requires a finish two spots higher. It also means that he’d be going lower than the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark and defending champion Tony Finau, all of whom were automatics for the Power Rankings. But it’s still a new week and Hughes’ experience at Memorial Park is objectively impressive. He’s 3-for-3 with a T7 (2020), a T16 (2022) and a scoring average of 69 on the difficult par 70. The big bonus is that he led the field in Strokes Gained: Putting en route to both top 20s. Someone has to but that he’s done it twice on Tom Doak’s redesign with serious undulations is proof that Hughes already has cracked the code.

Top 5

Taylor Moore (+900) … No Power Rankings is presented as a prediction of the final results of any tournament, but when a golfer finishes in close proximity to a top 10 after appearing in the same vicinity in the Power Rankings, it’s always checked off as a projection fulfilled. Top 10s are the objective. Because top fives can require some luck, those are bonuses. For his first-ever title defense on the PGA TOUR, Moore was No. 11 in the Power Rankings for last week’s Valspar Championship. Amid the new and exciting experience that included unprecedented distractions, he finished in a five-way tie for 12th. In what has been a solid-not-spectacular 2024, it’s easily his best finish. He ranked fourth in greens hit and eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. That’s now in the rearview mirror, his focus is singular (translation: Houston will feel like a lighter week) and his irons will travel to Memorial Park, which will reward momentum for this bonus.

Top 10

Akshay Bhatia (+500) … Although he’s one of the fresher faces of the PGA TOUR and an exciting talent, he truly is a Sleeper for this finish if for no other reason than Memorial Park is far from the kind of exposed, tropical stage on which he’s shone time and again. However, the lefty has connected for four top 20s in 2024, so he’s been just outside the bubble frequently. That includes a T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T17 at last week’s Valspar Championship where he tripped out of the gate with a 3-over 74. So, he’s coming around on exploiting how courses can elevate his phenomenal iron game. If you’re keen, he’s +250 for a Top 20 in Houston.

Top 20

Martin Laird (+600) … In his heyday of a decade ago, the Scot was a force on challenging tracks that rewarded power and precision from tee to green. Now 41 years of age, he’s lost a little life off his fastball but he’s remained dangerous enough never to have lost his fully exempt status. What’s carried forward is a penchant to ride a groove, and he’s in one right now. Since the WM Phoenix Open, a transplanted hometown stop where his record is strong, he’s 4-for-4 with consecutive top 10s baked into the middle. Placed T22 in his last trip to Memorial Park during the fall of 2022 when he had sustained solid form long enough to rise for that finish. If you’re not interested in the reach, he’s a valuable +200 for a Top 40.

Top 40

Tom Whitney (+333) … Although he’s a PGA TOUR rookie in his tournament debut, this is surprisingly attractive value. He’s fresh off a T33 at Valspar, another debut on a tough test where he ranked inside the top 15 in fairways hit, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, par-5 scoring and scrambling, so he now has two top 40s in six starts this season. The other was a T13 at perennially punishing Torrey Pines. His skill set slides comfortably into a track like Memorial Park where ball-striking is key. But his secret weapon continues to be the fact that he’s 34 years of age with a military background and personal perspective that no one else can touch. When the challenge inside the ropes intensifies, he already has the kind of mettle necessary to go to work.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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