Sleeper Picks: Valspar Championship

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Matti Schmid (+15000) … If we’ve returned to the familiar moment in time when “there’s Scottie Scheffler, and then there’s everybody else,” then it’s time to swipe or scroll back into the bowels of the board for a longshot. Of course “everybody else” entirely can extend Scheffler’s burst of wins among favorites – he was the favorite en route to both of his victories across the most recent fortnight – but he’s the only short odds that has paid in 2024. About Schmid: The 26-year-old German is fresh off a sporty T10-T26 run of his own the last two weeks. It stands out because it took him a while to reconnect with form this year, but it was only last fall when he proved that he could find a heater and let it ride for weeks, what with a second, a third and a T4 in six events worldwide. After ranking third in greens in regulation at the Puerto Rico Open, he co-led THE PLAYERS Championship in par-5 scoring.

Top 5

Min Woo Lee (+600) … He’s a Sleeper in the sense that he’s not in the Power Rankings despite the elevated expectation that he’ll make a charge even in his debut at the Valspar Championship. The Aussie won’t be short for a long, long time, but his value is influenced more by his potential than by what he’s proven. His firepower and likable swagger speak for themselves but understandable inconsistency serves as the through line. So, relative to the others in the field on the Copperhead Course, his ceiling is higher than most. That clears the space for him to reach more comfortably for his breakthrough victory.

Top 10

Joel Dahmen (+750) … As the old saying goes, it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. Well, his opening 74 at THE PLAYERS didn’t help but his aggregate of 14-under 202 across the last three rounds was third-lowest in the field (behind Brian Harman’s 197 and Scottie Scheffler’s 201). Dahmen checked up at T11 for what easily is his best finish of 2024. An apathetic approach that he employed mid-tournament paid dividends and allowed him to showcase his bread and butter of ball-striking. He’s 3-for-3 at Copperhead.

Top 20

Ricky Castillo (+550) … He will be fun to watch even if you abstain, but why would you? The 23-year-old product of the University of Florida and former top-ranked amateur in the world is making his debut as a professional on the PGA TOUR. All he did when he turned pro after the conclusion of the 2022-23 collegiate season was win in his first start on the Korn Ferry Tour. He quieted predictably the rest of the year but he’s since regained speed in 2024. All of his last five starts have resulted in top 20s on the KFT, including a pair of T5s and a solo seventh. He leads the circuit with an active streak of 15 consecutive red numbers.

Top Brit and Irish

Seamus Power (+500) … The absence of a Top 40 market this week presents the chance to shop elsewhere. As of Tuesday, there are nine golfers in this grouping. Power is second-shortest to Aaron Rai (+188). The Irishman already has delivered once in this position on the page by paying off at +550 as Top Irish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (T31) at which Rory McIlroy (T66) was the only other who was in play. Since returning to competition from over four months off due to an injured right hip, Power is 6-for-7 with one top 30, that a T21 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard two weeks ago. So, that steady stream of paydays of late is enough evidence that he’s now close to returning to contention. When he’s on, he has no weaknesses. It’s been five years since he’s pegged it at Copperhead Course and when he still was enduring the steepest segment of the learning curve on the PGA TOUR.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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