Sleeper Picks: THE PLAYERS Championship

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

Outright

Corey Conners (+5500) … Given the not-so-seemingly-unrealistic expectation for Scottie Scheffler to become the first in tournament history to successfully defend a title at THE PLAYERS Championship, identifying another to prevail seems superfluous. But hey, maybe Scheffler will forget to play. In that case, we should be ready with a Plan B. Or this Plan CC, as it were. The Canadian leaps to mind as the kind of profile rewarded at TPC Sawgrass – a ball-striker. While both of his PGA TOUR wins were at TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open (where he will be defending his 2023 victory in three weeks), he did rise for a solo seventh here in 2021. Fresh off a vintage T18 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard to make it 14 consecutive cuts made upon arrival.

Top 5

Tom Hoge (+1100) … Prime personified in performance, the 34-year-old has been loitering on leaderboards regularly of late with five top 20s in his last seven outings, and it hasn’t mattered that he’s taken only one week off. Who does he think he is – Eric Cole?! (In fact, the duo co-leads the PGA TOUR this season with nine starts apiece.) What’s more, Hoge already has one top five at TPC Sawgrass. It happened last year when he set the course record with a 10-under in the third round en route to a T3. It’s also his most recent top five, so there’s an argument that both the result and the trend rest on that historic score. However, statistically he’s quite something. Currently No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green, proximity to the hole and total birdies. He’s also T1 in Par-3 Scoring.

Top 10

J.T. Poston (+700) … This is a wonderfully timed opportunity to test the narrative of the better part of the last two years. For his first several seasons on the PGA TOUR, he was a nice player with what presented as a glass ceiling. He plateaued. And then he found another level in the second half of 2022 that has reset the expectations for short-range considerations. For the 30-year-old approaching his prime, course history is more fact than friction, so that he has a pair of T22s in four appearances at TPC Sawgrass is a bonus. Arguably best known as a terrific putter but the verifiable counterpoint is that he’s exceptionally balanced throughout his bag.

Top 20

Kevin Yu (+600) … One of 22 debutants in the field of 144 and among the best equipped for the exam. The 25-year-old is 14th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 18th in greens in regulation, T5 in ball-striking and 25th in proximity. He also pays off another gear by slotting T16 in Par-5 Scoring. After an awfully quiet last five months of 2023, he’s opened the new season with three top 10s, including a T9 in his last start in what was his debut at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches.

Top 40

Nico Echavarria (+300) … After breaking through for victory at the Puerto Rico Open a year ago, he went the rest of 2023 without a top 25 and he cashed only five more times. However, the Colombian walked off the season with three straight cuts made that showed the kind of late life that goes a long way to defining his grit and character. Lo and behold, he opened 2024 with another three in a row. He finally was slowed with an 0-for-2 skid, but he’s since connected three top 25s, including a T15 in his title defense at Grand Reserve Golf Club. Opened with 71 in his debut here last year before missing the cut. Impressively well above average in numerous facets measured.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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