Sleeper Picks: Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

OUTRIGHT

Daniel Berger (+4000) … Ever since the 30-year-old returned to action in January, this has been the week for which we’ve all been waiting. Get the all-things Floridian back on native turf and elevate expectations. And heck, since this is a home game and he warmed with 10 rounds of competition in going 2-for-3 on the West Coast Swing, let’s just go straight to the top. Although these odds match Jake Knapp’s pre-tournament odds to win the Mexico Open at Vidanta – thus far the shortest of the eight champions in 2024 – they still are long enough to warrant this slot if for no other reason than the fact that Berger hasn’t felt the heat of contending in some time. However, he still has unfinished business after surrendering a five-stroke margin entering the final round of his last start at PGA National two years ago. He settled for fourth place to go with a playoff loss in 2015 and a T4 in 2020.

TOP 5

Denny McCarthy (+800) … He’s opened 2024 by going 5-for-5, but none went for a top 20. It’s his first such drought since he bridged the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with five straight outside that bubble, but the native East Coaster and local resident gets back on Bermudagrass this week. Just like it has everyone else who’s competed at PGA National enough, the course has knocked him around a bit, but he rose for a T3 in 2021, so this result isn’t unprecedented. His combination of precision and putting plays up on a test like this, and despite the absence of a leaderboard appearance thus far this season, 15 of his scores have been under par. So, as the pros like to say, he’s close.

TOP 10

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+450) … The forgotten runner-up to Nick Dunlap’s breakthrough victory as an amateur at The American Express has performed nicely to open his third consecutive season on the PGA TOUR. Since, Bezuidenhout has added a trio of top 30s to go with the four top 10s across six starts worldwide through the close call at PGA WEST. His improving tee-to-green game will be tested properly at PGA National but he cashed in both of his previous appearances, so he has the experience of what the wind can do on top of having learned where he wants to be positioned on approach.

TOP 20

Dylan Wu (+500) … On the heels of a T24 at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, you get the feeling that this line would have been shorter if he had managed to shed one stroke for a top-20 finish. That notion is further fueled by the fact that he’s 2-for-2 at PGA National with a T10 a year ago when he co-led the field after the cut in scoring 7-under 133. (Reminder: This year’s par has risen by one to 71.) He went on to post another four top 20s last season. Because of his proficiency off the tee, he’ll keep his ball dry. That supports another payday for another run on the weekend in a tournament that’s never a shootout.

TOP 40

Chesson Hadley (+130) … If you’re the kind of bettor who is keen on filling a card with nothing but these Sleepers, yet you want to feel really good about at least one of them, then turn to a guy who’s rarely a guy to whom we’ve turned for that kind of confidence; that is, until he’s playing well. Well, he’s playing well again. In fact, his run of form extends back to last summer when a T24 at the Travelers Championship launched a series of, count ‘em, 11 top 40s in 15 starts. That includes two in his last three with a T24 on Sunday in Mexico. And it doesn’t hurt that all four of his cuts made in eight tries at PGA National are top 30s.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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