Sleeper Picks: Mexico Open at Vidanta

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

OUTRIGHT

Scott Stallings (+8000) … Given that it’s been over 10 years since his last PGA TOUR title, there’s a feel that these odds would apply to a yes-or-no market for something like, “Scott Stallings will get a win in 2024.” So, to pick the week after a decade drought would be extraordinary. But as the old caddie once said, you can’t sink the putt if it doesn’t reach the hole, boss … or something like that. The 38-year-old has shown some flashes this season, just not all at once. It’s part of the reason why he’s as long as he is to prevail at the Mexico Open at Vidanta. However, he’s only four months removed from a playoff loss at the Sanderson Farms Championship and he’s logged two rounds at Vidanta Vallarta, so he’s not cold to the test. He also presents more than enough pop off the tee, and his game improves nearer the hole. In a season of longshot winners, he might as well jump onto the pile.

TOP 5

Mackenzie Hughes (+850) … Going for consecutive conversions in this space. Will Zalatoris delivered a T2 at The Genesis Invitational after his appearance here last week. Hughes is among the octet in Mexico that competed at The Riviera Country Club, and he’s the highest finisher (T31) not in the Power Rankings (defending champion Tony Finau). The Canadian sat T2 at the midpoint of The Genesis Invitational. He’s also exempt into all Signature Events but he’s not yet into the Masters. Winning always is the objective but his target essentially is singular in that focus. He’s been a dynamic performer who plays up in fields like this one.

TOP 10

Alejandro Tosti (+500) … As the 27-year-old from Argentina continues to find his footing in his rookie season, this is the tournament at which he’s already expected to make some noise. Prior to his splash as a PGA TOUR member, his T10 at Vidanta Vallarta last year (for which he paid off a sponsor exemption) was and remains his best finish in now seven career starts at this level. It also was merely one of numerous impressive performances throughout 2023. In what was his only season on the Korn Ferry Tour, he recorded a victory among 10 top 10s and finished third in Scoring Average, Driving Distance, Putting and Total. He also led the circuit in converting greens in regulation into par breakers. Given the docile conditions expected and slower greens that should anchor a shootout this week, his best self should shine.

TOP 20

Jhonattan Vegas (+225) … It was in Monterrey, Mexico, in November where he returned to competition after almost eight months away due to injury. He finished T22 at the V Copa Multimedios on the Gira de Golf Profesional Mexicana. In stronger fields since, he’s gone 2-for-6 worldwide, both paydays as a result of a top 25, the latter of which a T22 in his last start at the WM Phoenix Open where his patented tee-to-green power and precision was on display. The same formula applies in his debut at Vidanta Vallarta.

TOP 40

Ryan Brehm (+450) … One of the strengths rewarded this week is, well, strength, so you want a guy who can send it. Tucked near the bottom of the board is the talk drink of water from Michigan. Ignore the fact that he’s taken more weekends off than a government employee. He’s the hero of the 2022 Puerto Rico Open for which Jason Segal should play him in the movie about that chip-and-a-chair triumph. All of Brehm’s last four paydays across his last 13 starts were top 25s, so he’s absent a short-term memory when he cashes, and that just might be his biggest asset. Although his driver will be behind the wheel, he’s also a fine putter.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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