Sleeper Picks: WM Phoenix Open

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

OUTRIGHT

Kurt Kitayama (+6600) … As he glances toward the horizon of his title defense at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in four weeks, he’s in terrific position to arrive with the kind of form that he’d like. Currently riding a career-long consecutive cuts-made streak of eight, that consistency opposes his profile as an occasional spike, but that doesn’t mean that he’s made a trade. The scarcity of him contending is why he’s as long as he is to win the WM Phoenix Open, but he also has a pile of receipts to prove otherwise. Where better to lean on it than on the vibe of TPC Scottsdale? In his debut last year, he led the field in converting greens in regulation into par breakers en route to a T23, and that was after he opened with 4-over 75 and survived the cut on the number.

TOP 5

Min Woo Lee (+650) … When I slotted him at No. 13 in my full-membership fantasy ranking before the season started, he had just galloped through the tape of 2023 with a Win-3rd burst at home in Australia. He also won in Macao in October and sealed his 2024 PGA TOUR card with a T6 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP the following week. Alas, he’s started his first year as a member quietly but if something like Strokes Gained: Feed-Off-the-Energy was quantifiable, his first experience at TPC Scottsdale should generate headlines because the setup and conditions will cater to his aggressive approach.

TOP 10

Adam Hadwin (+375) … When he’s not in the Power Rankings, he’s almost always a short-lister for Sleepers. That notion has been injected with additional support since we shifted into tiers of props at the top of the year. He checks all of the boxes on the back of the trading card, his form provides more than enough reason to devote a unit and his track record at TPC Scottsdale is the product of all of it. Shared the lead at last year’s midpoint en route to a personal-best T10.

TOP 20

Nate Lashley (+400) … I had him targeted for this spot before the odds dropped on Tuesday morning, and they have cooperated. Among the plethora of local residents, the 41-year-old has been a staple in the tournament since first qualifying in 2020. He splashed with a T3 (despite battling a sore wrist at the time) and answered with a T17 the following year. He’s gone seven straight rounds at TPC Scottsdale without a sub-70 but he’s fresh off a week off after a T3 at the Farmers Insurance Open. For a veteran who doesn’t resonate often in our world, that bounce is what we prefer over the alternative.

TOP 40

Seamus Power (+200) … Although the Irishman was benefited by not having to hold position in a fourth round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he still worked his way to an upset over Rory McIlroy in their head-to-head for low countryman and paid off that prop in this space pre-tournament, so let’s piggyback. On his own, Power finished T31. It’s modest to be certain but it’s still his best finish of his last eight that bridge a four-month hiatus to recover from an injured right hip. After making the cut on the number in his third appearance at TPC Scottsdale last year, he gunned it for a T20 on the weekend. As he strolls around and feels the light rain throughout this week, he might feel like he’s back home, albeit with xeriscaping everywhere he turns.

Odds were sourced at BetMGM.

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