Sleeper Picks: Experience, patience drive success at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

OUTRIGHT

Andrew Putnam (+10000) … I’ve never been the kind of analyst or prognosticator who goes back to the well on purpose. It’s always a coincidence when it happens, but I’ve been touting him regularly in recent months, most recently for a Top 5 in this space for the Sony Open in Hawaii. He “settled” for a T10. As that example illustrates, it’s where the evidence takes us. It’s one or two top-10s in four starts spanning the holidays. When he cashed for a T6 at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2022, he was among 54-hole tri-leaders. But most of all, his lower ball flight positions him well off the tee, and his irons and putter are even stronger weapons. He checks all of the boxes almost all of the time. Oh, and while it’s relative to every tournament, it’s still a fact that all of the first four winners in 2024 were longer than his odds to win this week.

TOP 5

Denny McCarthy (+900) … Back for his fifth start in the tournament. Closed out last year’s T4 with a field-low-tying 64 on the host course. He turned in a T12 the year before that. No one is surprised given his talent and fit. His combination of finding fairways and sinking putts plays up on tough tracks and in tough conditions. With the latter promised this week and with solid form upon arrival, he’s poised to put on a clinic across four rounds.

TOP 10

Kevin Yu (+500) … The 25-year-old is a disruptor and a force. He’s in the field with the first-ever class of the Aon Swing 5, so this is a bonus. No, his T3 at The American Express and T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open weren’t recorded against fields like this week’s, and the same thing could be said about a T7 in his tournament debut here last year, but aren’t those exactly the kinds of results you want populating both of the most common angles when deciding where you drop your units? It was at Pebble Beach a year ago where he made his last appearance before suffering an injury to his left knee and sitting out months to recover from surgery for a torn meniscus. In the two measured rounds on the host course, he led the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and proximity to the hole. That’s precisely – pun intended – the kind of course management required in the conditions awaiting this week.

TOP 20

Matt Kuchar (+400) … It’s been, gulp, 15 years since the more recent of what is only two top-20s in 16 tries in this tournament. And it’s baffling no matter the conditions. His boring ball flight, propensity to find fairways and manage his ball around any property should reward him regularly in this rotation. This is his eighth return since a T14 in 2009, so he keeps coming back. He believes it, too. He also flashed enough form later in 2023 so as not to be terribly disconnected from positive vibes now, but he’s also opened 2024 with a pair of missed cuts. No doubt that’s contributing to his odds for this finish in a deep field. However, touring professionals of a certain age have contended and prevailed at Pebble Beach over time. Shorter courses with challenging weather provide opportunities for the longer hitters to retreat to guys like the 45-year-old, while patience and experience provide insurance between the ears.

TOP IRISH

Seamus Power (+550) … The only other golfer applied to this prop is Rory McIlroy at (-1000), he the No. 1 in my Power Rankings and BetMGM’s favorite to win at +850. So, why the endorsement for Power, you ask? Why not, I say. If this was a coin flip, it’d be pointless for you to read about it on this page, but the odds alone are enough reason to devote a fraction of a unit to the possibility. All of the “not McIlroy” angles tilt toward your favor, anyway. First of all, it’s golf. It happens. It’s why it can be so rewarding to invest in the alternative. Contributing to that this week is the weather. McIlroy once was almost purely a fair-weather performer, which was somewhat surprising given his roots. Those days are long gone but Mother Nature still is undefeated. It wouldn’t take much to knock McIlroy off balance. Of course, the same could be said of Power, but he’s the plus value in this head-to-head, and when par is of value, overall scoring relative to others can flatten. He also rose for top 15s in the last two editions of this tournament where he’s been a regular, as opposed to McIlroy’s lone appearance in 2018. Power also is healthy and busy once again. This tournament presents his best opportunity to feel the thrill of contention.

Odds were sourced on Jan. 30, 2024. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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