Sleeper Picks: The American Express

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob’s Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

OUTRIGHT

Cam Davis (+6600) … If you’re in search of a guy who isn’t far removed from regular appearances near the tops of leaderboards, look no further than the 28-year-old Aussie. With five top-10s and a T12 worldwide in the last five months of 2023, he was one of the hottest non-winners on the planet. He scuffled out the gates in 2024 but reignited with a first-round 62 to lead the Sony Open in Hawaii where he was +5000 pre-tournament to prevail before ultimately finishing T30. With a solo third here in 2021, he’s also no stranger to having a whiff of winning at PGA WEST.

TOP 5

Taylor Montgomery (+750) … Keeping this simple even though it’s everything but. As a PGA TOUR rookie and in his tournament debut a year ago, he finished alone in fifth. The 28-year-old is fresh off a T13 at the Sony Open in Hawaii to start the year after putting a bow on 2023 with a T8 at The RSM Classic. Those are the facts. What’s not easily forgotten is how he slipped from the clubhouse leader for 2022-23 Rookie of the Year to off the ballot. Although the learning curve is invisible, it’s also a fact. So, this is a prime time for him to reconnect with the terrific vibes of the Coachella Valley and remind everyone of his best self.

TOP 10

Patton Kizzire (+900) … The second straight tournament in which he’s in the field via a sponsor exemption, and it’s not at all a surprise. His easygoing nature and character should yield many more; that is, if he needs them. He paid off the spot at the Sony Open with a T13, his third top-15 after taking the title at Waialae Country Club in 2018. This marks his ninth consecutive appearance at The American Express where his best two finishes occurred in the last two editions – T22 in 2022 and T11 in 2023. But most of all, because he could be limited to playing time on conditional status, the 37-year-old already was in the headspace at the end of 2023 to be ready and thankful for every chance he’s going to get. He knows what it means and he doesn’t take it for granted. Go ahead and lean a bit into a top five (+2000) if you’re feeling frisky.

TOP 20

Matti Schmid (+450) … This is tasty value for a guy who ended 2023 with three top-four finishes and a T17 in his last six starts worldwide. One of those was a solo third at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship that propelled him into the top 125 of the FedExCup and dismissal from PGA TOUR Q-School presented by Korn Ferry. Just like last year, he shed the sugarplum fairies in a short week at Waialae Country Club but gets back out there to answer a T6 in his debut at PGA WEST.

TOP 40

Joe Highsmith (+350) … Welcome to the big leagues, kid! The 23-year-old and youngest among the Korn Ferry Tour graduates was the last man in the field at last week’s Sony Open. He had a day’s notice but that’s a heckuva way to debut as a PGA TOUR member. The lefty finished second-to-last to move on quickly, but the upside is that he’s no longer wondering what it’s like to lace it up at this level. We also cannot discount the value in the unknowns of so many graduates, so remaining aggressive early has merit. And who better than with the circuit’s leader in the all-around ranking in 2023. He also played collegiately at relatively nearby Pepperdine University where Sahith Theegala was a teammate. Highsmith also concluded last year with a pair of podium finishes, so he has more momentum than last week’s anomalous experience suggests.

Odds were sourced on Jan. 16, 2024. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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