Sleeper Picks: Sony Open in Hawaii

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob's Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

OUTRIGHT

Emiliano Grillo (+8000) … When reviewing this market, I limited the pool to those who opened the season at The Sentry. As noted in my Power Rankings, eight of the last 10 winners of the Sony Open in Hawaii played the week prior at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. The Argentine was one of the 59 on Maui. Although he finished T43, he opened with respective rounds of 66 and 68. He’s 5-for-7 and without a top 20 at Waialae Country Club, but all experience is a bonus. Because so many of his performances are dictated by his putter, he’s often longer than perhaps it feels that he should be. That’s good for us.

TOP 5

Andrew Putnam (+800) … Sticking with another warm body who made the short flight west from Kapalua, it’s tough not to lift him into focus just about every time he pegs it. He does everything so well above average, but he’ll never win a long-drive contest. He won’t need to at Waialae, a par 70 with two par 5s that tips at just 7,044 yards, but the 34-year-old can hang with the best of them on par 5s, anyway. He’s already connected for a pair of top fives in this tournament, including a T4 a year ago, and he walked off the FedExCup Fall with a T5 at the World Wide Technology Championship at another wind-challenged tropical site.

TOP 10

Cam Davis (+400) … One more carryover from Kapalua, the Aussie stumbled out of the gate with a 75, but that was due primarily to two bad holes on which he scored a triple bogey-6 and a double bogey-7. The upshot is that he concluded the week with a bogey-free, 8-under 65. While it’d be dramatic to be compelled to argue not to give up on him, indeed, grant him the reality that there’s no perfect in golf. Lest we ignore that closed out 2023 with six top 10s and a T12 in his last nine starts worldwide. He’s also 4-for-5 at Waialae with a personal-best T9 in 2020.

TOP 20

Stephan Jaeger (+275) … Unlike the three above, he didn’t qualify for The Sentry but you know that he’s going to give you a puncher’s chance. Arrives having cashed in 17 consecutive starts. Six resulted in a top 20 and he was one stroke outside that range in two. He finished 2022-23 what was a career-best season inside the top 25 in par-3, par-4 and par-5 scoring, as well as numerous metrics of his tee-to-green game. Three paydays in four tries at Waialae are highlighted by a T28 a year ago when he ranked inside the top 10 in greens hit, scrambling and conversion percentage inside 10 feet.

TOP 40

Jacob Bridgeman (+225) … Since this is the first opportunity for Korn Ferry Tour graduates to give it a go as PGA TOUR members, there are tasty considerations on the opening board because everyone is adjusting on the fly to the possibilities and impact. I went straight to the 24-year-old and was pleased with this kickback for this finish. I slotted him at No. 100 in my full-membership fantasy ranking, so my long-range expectation already is elevated. He’s a worker with maturity to match. The Clemson product flourished in his only full season on the KFT with relentlessness. Invest a unit if for no other reason than to watch and learn what happens with skin in the game.

Odds were sourced on Jan. 9, 2024. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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