Sleeper Picks: The Sentry

NOTE: Sleeper Picks did not appear in Rob's Power Rankings, but each presents value for the bet specified.

OUTRIGHT

J.T. Poston (+10000) … Never mind that he hasn’t won since the John Deere Classic in 2022, it’s the formula for success on the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Maui, Hawaii, that warrants the intrigue and your unit. The fearless 30-year-old can score with the best of ‘em and he’s already logged eight rounds on the renovation. Best of all, when he gets hot, he’s a bona fide force. Since a T6 in his title defense at TPC Deere Run six months ago, he’s risen for five top 10s, four of which in traditional shootouts like this week’s model. Zero weaknesses.

TOP 5

Russell Henley (+700) … This is a tester but he presents the alternative of the options worth considering. Renown as streaky throughout his 11 seasons on the PGA TOUR but more consistently strong as he’s entered his prime, the 34-year-old concluded 2023 with five consecutive top-15 finishes, the first three of which were top 10s. (He’s +300 for a top 10 at Kapalua.) Additionally, his incredible precision to land the ball in the best places sets him up to score at will. He’s also no stranger to Kapalua where he placed T3 in 2015. Granted, that was pre-renovation but he went to school on it last year.

TOP 10

Akshay Bhatia (+600) … Yes, he’s a debutant and, yes, the field is formidable, but Maui is an island and the wind is expected to blow a bit. Therein lies his appeal despite his inexperience and stature relative to others. The 21-year-old lefty already has proven time and again how much he thrives in these climates. Lean into it. He also walked off 2023 by going 6-for-6 with a T10 in, where else, Los Cabos, Mexico, highlighting a trio of top 25s. His combination of power and precision tee-to-green is sublime if not unfair at his age, so the wildcard is how quickly he can score. Based on his acceleration and trajectory, this is speculation worth a full unit.

TOP 20

Erik van Rooyen (+240) … The last we saw the South African, he was surging to an emotional victory at the World Wide Technology Championship two months ago, but he competed once at home at the Alfred Dunhill Championship in the interim and finished T32, so he’s not rusty. For a variety of reasons during his three completed seasons on the PGA TOUR, the 33-year-old has ridden waves of form to fortune, while only injuries have wobbled his intentions. With an especially strong finish to 2023 serving as the most recent sequence of events in the rearview mirror, confidence remains unwavering to extend to five top 20s in eight starts worldwide. Finished T25 at Kapalua in his only prior appearance in 2022.

TOP 20

Tom Hoge (+210) … For a guy who’s carved out his career as a scorer on one of the easiest courses, he plays to yield more than twice your investment in a kickback to finish inside the top third of the field is a coup. Oh, and he debuted at Kapalua with a T3 a year ago, leading the field in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and proximity to the hole in the process. He paid it off by co-leading in fewest putts needed on the ginormous targets. For good measure, he sprinkled four top 20s worldwide across his last 10 official starts in 2023.

Odds were sourced on Jan. 2, 2024. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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