Sleeper Picks: Who could come from behind at the BMW Championship

NOTE: For three consecutive events, Rob identifies golfers needing a good performance to advance in the FedExCup Playoffs. In this final edition, all five below enter the BMW Championship outside the top 30 in points. Scenarios for all golfers to advance can be reviewed here. Recommended bets are independent of targets to advance.

Sahith Theegala (+160 = Top 20) … At 31st in the FedExCup, he’s the closest wannabe tapping on the glass for entry into next week’s TOUR Championship, so he’s an easy call among the 20 candidates for Sleepers. Even better, he’s fresh off a T13 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship where he overcame lousy-to-average ball-striking with a sharp short game and putter. It also was his third top-15 finish in four starts in the Playoffs, so the 25-year-old is quite comfortable in the series. In the three previous editions of the Playoffs when points were quadrupled (2019, 2021, 2022), all top-eight finishes were rewarded with trips to East Lake Golf Club and nine golfers from outside the top 30 upon arrival to the penultimate leg crashed in, including at least two in each. Of the nine bounces from inside the top 30, the best finish was J.J. Spaun’s T23 as the 30th seed in 2022.

Justin Rose (+115 = Top 20) … With only 50 in play at Olympia Fields, there isn’t a top-40 market, so kickbacks for a top 20 wouldn’t be felt unless you multiply the unit. As it concerns the 43-year-old who is chasing his second FedExCup title (2018), this endorsement is more about his current position of leverage at 32nd in the FedExCup than his fit for the course and his form. Call him a Sleepers Classic. Exceptionally well-balanced no matter your analysis, in all his last five paydays, he’s recorded a top 20. Sure, there were three missed cuts sprinkled in, but that’s not a possibility this week.

Byeong Hun An (+120 = Top 20) … If I was going to write a Power Rankings of disruptors among the guys slotted 31-50 in the FedExCup standings, he’d be No. 1. With guys like Matt Fitzpatrick (40th), Cameron Young (46th) and Hideki Matsuyama (47th), there’s a lot of boldface among the possibilities, but An, who is seeded 38th, has a pair of podium finishes in his last four starts punctuating a career-best 12 top 25s in his impressive return season to the PGA TOUR. Improved putting has him 23rd in converting greens in regulation into par breakers and 30th in adjusted scoring. It doesn’t hurt that he finished T12 here in 2020.

Andrew Putnam (+210 = Top 20) … Momentum is a relative phenomenon, but the mere existence of the kinetic energy proves a confidence that can accelerate the motion. To put that into golf parlance, he’s “close.” Putting four rounds together is difficult, but he’s avoided big numbers with enough consistency to have cashed in his last eight starts, including two majors. He placed T24 last week. For the season, the 34-year-old is 40th in greens hit, fifth in Strokes Gained: Putting, 13th in scrambling and 23rd in adjusted scoring.

Cam Davis (+125 = Top 20 and +100 = Top Australian) … This is a rare second consecutive appearance in Sleepers, but as noted at the top, this file deviates from the norm for the Playoffs. He’s also earned it after delivering a T6 at the FedExCup St. Jude Championship to be one of two (Matsuyama being the other) to climb into the top 50 for the BMW Championship. Now 45th, Davis remains as realistic a threat to the top 30. The proven streaky talent has registered four top 20s in his last five starts and Olympia Fields is yet another track that caters to his power and precision from tee to green.

Odds were sourced on Aug. 15, 2023. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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