Sleeper Picks: The Open Championship

Jordan Smith (+500 = Top 20) … When you get to be good, you shed the “L,” as he has done with his middle initial in forward-facing visuals. That includes on leaderboards on which he’s finished on top for the “W” twice on the DP World Tour, the latter of which last fall in Portugal. More recently, the 30-year-old from the host country of The Open Championship has ripped off five straight paydays, including a T20 at the U.S. Open and a T12 at last week’s stop at The Renaissance Club. He’s among the straightest off the tee on the DP World Tour and no one has a higher clip of hitting greens in regulation. It’s a potent combo for a track that demands the highest of confidence and execution in ball-striking.

Brendon Todd (+700 = Top 20) … Although this presents as an aggressive send, there are too many positive forces not to try to score. At 37, he’s in the wheelhouse of wisdom, patience and comportment that The Open Championship so often rewards so well. He’s also experienced in this major specifically, including at Royal Liverpool where he placed T39 in his tournament debut in 2014. Answered that with a T12 at St. Andrews the following year. Currently ninth on the PGA TOUR in fairways hit, 16th in proximity to the hole, 20th in Strokes Gained: Putting and eighth in scrambling, the tall drink of water also checks enough boxes to excite data hounds. And he’s rested since a season-best T2 at the John Deere Classic, obviously also a well-timed tune-up.

Thorbjørn Olesen (+200 = Top Dane) … Basically, this is the “neither Højgaard twin” prop among the three-headed contingent from Denmark, each of whom are plus values for this bet, so pick your favorite. A winning argument exists for all, so why not include the longest shot on your card? Although he hasn’t appeared in four years, Olesen has cashed five times in nine Opens. He’s fresh off a T25 at the Genesis Scottish Open, the latest of eight top 25s scattered across 2023. The 32-year-old leans on strong iron play and touch around and on greens to slot seventh in scoring average on the DP World Tour.

Alexander Björk (+220 = Top Swedish) … Before you dismiss outright on his 0-for-4 record in The Open, consider that he’s shortest among four Swedes. The longest of whom is David Lingmerth at +350, he of the T3 and 11th-hour qualification into the field. Björk has earned the respect on the board because he’s eighth in the Race to Dubai. He’s cashed in 18 straight starts worldwide – six of his last eight went for a top 10 – and he leads the DP World Tour in scoring. As for sharpening the focus on the fit for Royal Liverpool, he’s also sixth in fairways hit and 11th in greens in regulation.

Yannik Paul (+1600 = Top Debutant) … This always is a fun prop for the majors, but especially for The Open where conventional wisdom often is humbled. The default here is that the 29-year-old from Germany has connected a dozen paydays in the last five months, so he presents strongly to make the cut for the chance to tackle the weekend and pay off your investment. Held steady for a T25 last week in Scotland and sits 13th in the Race to Dubai. Ranks 20th in both greens hit and scoring average on the DP World Tour.

Odds were sourced on Tuesday, July 18, 2023. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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