Sleeper Picks: the Memorial

Brendon Todd (+125 = Top 40) … Muirfield Village is capable of reaching 7,571 yards. Of course, it never plays that long but many tracks that the 37-year-old has tamed max out well below where this week’s test will settle on any given day. This is a relevant factor because, although he’s a tall drink of water, he’s among the shortest drivers on the PGA TOUR. (Think Matt Kuchar if you already don’t.) Todd makes up for hitting most approaches first amongst his playing partners by striking said shots from the shortest grass often and with one of the most confident strokes of his generation on the greens, but he’s still inside the top-30 percentile in par-5 scoring, so by no means is he a two-trick pony. Three of his four paydays in five tries at Memorial resulted in a top 40, and all were top 25s.

Patrick Rodgers (+125 = Top 40) … Low risk, high reward. Although still winless as he approaches 250 career PGA TOUR starts – this is No. 241 – he’s experiencing arguably his best season with what already are career highs in top 10s (4) and top 25s (8). A formidable fall laid the foundation but he just went 5th-T19-T10 from TPC San Antonio to Harbour Town to Vidanta, thus showcasing his flexibility and capability to adapt to the track. He’s also 4-for-7 at Muirfield Village with three top 40s, the most recent of which a T18 in 2020.

Robby Shelton (+180 = Top 40) … Not that you ever truly are hoping that someone has a rough day but that he played himself out of contention with a third-round 76 at Colonial and still finished T29 didn’t disrupt what is a meaty kickback for a top 40 at Muirfield Village. Indeed, he was lurking at the midpoint last week before the Saturday setback, but that’s going to happen to everyone. Currently 46th in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and T28 in proximity to the hole, that skill set is rewarded this week more than usual because of the length of the walk and the size of the targets. And he’s already fulfilled this prop before having finished T32 in his only prior trip in 2021.

Luke List (+188 = Top 40) … Give the bomber a big ballpark and he’s going to be a big man on campus, so it’s time to revisit the possibilities at Muirfield Village. In his career, he’s 3-for-6 with each payday going for a top 40. The highlight was a T10 in 2020. En route to last year’s T26, he was among the R1 co-leaders with a personal-best 67 in 18 rounds on the course. Sits eighth on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 21st in greens in regulation and 39th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Those rankings won’t surprise you, but the fact that they still apply isn’t insignificant.

Akshay Bhatia (+160 = Top 40) … The best performers among the five who have achieved and accepted Special Temporary Membership this season has acknowledged that his game rises up in tropical climes where the wind so often contributes to the experience. Since opening 2023 with a pair of top 10s on the Korn Ferry Tour in The Bahamas, he’s added a solo second in Puerto Rico and a solo fourth in Mexico. However, another common component that shouldn’t be overlooked is how exceptional he is with his irons, so when presented with a long course, he’s fared well, wind or no wind. Although the 21-year-old lefty is in his debut at Muirfield Village, his confidence should be elevated considering that he’s 13th on the PGA TOUR in greens hit, 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and 30th in proximity.

Odds were sourced on Tuesday, May 30, 2023. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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