Sleeper Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Byeong Hun An (+550 = Top 20) … After slotting at No. 13 in the Power Rankings for The Honda Classic, he was comfortably inside the top 10 entering the final round before falling into a five-way tie for 21st with a Sunday 73. It’s his fifth payday in as many starts in 2023 but first start in three weeks. Now that he’s warm, Bay Hill actually presents a better fit for his long ball off the tee, but in this beefier field, he’s slipped behind the crowd, and that’s good for us. Since 2016, he’s 6-for-6 in the API with a T10 in 2019.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+375 = Top 20) … His value will be flattened on course history alone -- since his debut in 2020, he’s gone T18-7th-T20 – but that’s OK because it’s the kind of consistently strong form we want in every investment, not to mention that he’s navigated Bay Hill in a variety of conditions to extend that confidence into this week’s fray. He’s been quiet of late but he still connected for a T11 at PGA West, and we can count on him to find fairways at Bay Hill. With winds projected to gust, a couple of confident sharpshooters will surprise despite the length of the track.

Luke List … Anytime (every time?) he’s lined up to tackle a brutish backdrop, he demands our attention. Even at 38 years of age, he’s consistently among the longest hitters off the tee, and because of that, he’s among the most accurate on approach. Toss in four par 5s and scoring conditions during which par will feel like a red number, and it won’t matter much that his putting unlikely will impress. It just doesn’t need to. It’s that kind of formula that yielded his breakthrough victory at Torrey Pines of all places. He’s already proven that it works at Bay Hill, too. After debuting with a T17 in 2017, he piggybacked it with a T7 in 2018 and a T10 in 2019. And for a guy who’s been batting about .500 for four seasons, it’s notable that he’s 7-for-11 this season with a T25 at Torrey Pines and a T29 at Riviera.

Davis Riley … It’s like a rite of passage … across the United States. Every year, there’s a contingent of native and resident Southeasterners who find a return to bermuda greens as comfortable as sliding on a favorite T-shirt. Sure, many factors contribute to success and not all performers are defined by them, but the 2023 body of evidence already includes the likes of Eric Cole (P2), Ben Martin (T5) and Carson Young (T29), each of whom with attention-getting performances at PGA National last week. Riley’s constant is as a stripe show on approach, so our speculation relies on a hot putter to disrupt. He also was among the turnarounds at the Honda a T29, easily his best effort in five starts in 2023. Not surprisingly, the Mississippian ranked third in the field by average 14 greens in regulation per round.

Aaron Baddeley … It’s not easy to get into the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard while navigating a season on Past Champion status, and he’s in on merit to boot. With a pair of early top 10s among six paydays, the 41-year-old Aussie is an impressive 75th in the FedExCup. While he still has work to do, many fully exempt members would love to trade places with that position, but it projects to improve at Bay Hill where he placed T17 in his last trip in 2019. He was T3 and only two strokes back entering the finale.

Odds were sourced on Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2023. For live odds, visit BetMGM.

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