Power Rankings: Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

There are designated events, and then there is the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. It’s officially a designated event in 2023, but you don’t need to conceive a visual of the King himself winking, grinning and giving a thumbs-up to approve what we already know, that this tournament is special.

A cozy field of 120 is chasing a winner’s cut of 550 FedExCup points and $3.6 million from a prize fund of $20 million. How Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge will present itself, what Mother Nature has planned and more can be found below.

Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama will be among the notables considered in Golfbet Insider.

This is the fourth designated event of the season. Of the 23 Player Impact Program winners, the only not to commit is Tiger Woods. Of course, he remains indefinitely beholden to when his extended recovery will allow him to play in accordance with a chosen schedule. Still, given his track record at Bay Hill and doses of phenomenal form a fortnight ago at Riviera, you’ll excuse any competitor for not missing him on the leaderboard this week. It guarantees that someone else will be holding the trophy.

Sure, it’s been 10 years since Woods last won at Bay Hill, but he collected eight victories here across 14 editions, including the last two of three consecutive when the course routed as a par 70 through 2009. It didn’t matter to him that there were two fewer par 5s at the time, but that’s always been a cornerstone weapon for the 82-time PGA TOUR winner.

Bay Hill has been a stock par 72 since 2010. Because it can stretch to 7,466 yards and winds often punish, muscle almost always has contributed to the profile of the champion. TifEagle bermuda greens are larger than average in size (and not overseeded), but they’re equipped to flirt with and exceed 13 feet on the Stimpmeter. With primary rough at least 3½ inches high, distance and accuracy off the tee plays up all week. The goal will be to hit shorter irons into challenging targets with invisible forces poised to smack even properly executed strikes out of the sky.

Indeed, the wind is going to blow.

The field gets a primer on Thursday when gusts might touch 20 mph. By Friday, that’ll be the sustained average for the prevailing push from the southwest, while gusts will reach 35 mph. Trusting that greens will be adjusted accordingly, it’s a plan that likely will extend into Saturday’s third round for which the elements will mimic the opener, albeit with a slight risk of inclement weather.

Sunday’s finale easily will be the best round in the context of scoring conditions, but Bay Hill’s bite might strengthen even more than usual as the wind will rotate and howl in from the north. Daytime highs could hit 90 degrees until the wind shifts. When it does, it could make a difference of 10-15 degrees cooler.

Bay Hill already is one of if not the hardest par 72 in a non-major in every season – last year’s scoring average of 73.886 easily set the mark among its peers – but consider that, in relatively docile conditions a year ago, the opening-round scoring average still was 72.292! When the wind machine was on high for the final round, the course yielded a 75.481, highest for any final round on TOUR all season. So, course management and accepting par as a great score at times will be key.

In addition to the aforementioned rewards, clutching the silver trophy and slipping on the iconic red sweater, the winner will be exempt into THE PLAYERS Championship through 2025 and his PGA TOUR membership will be extended through at least 2026.

ROB BOLTON’S SCHEDULE

PGATOUR.com’s Rob Bolton recaps and previews every tournament from numerous perspectives. Look for his following contributions as scheduled.

MONDAY: Power Rankings (API)

TUESDAY*: Power Rankings (Puerto Rico), Sleepers (API)

WEDNESDAY: Golfbet Insider

SUNDAY: Payouts and Points (API), Payouts and Points (Puerto Rico), Medical Extensions, Qualifiers, Reshuffle

* - Rob is a member of the panel for PGATOUR.COM’s Expert Picks for PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf, which also publishes on Tuesday.