The Five: Bubble drama, race for positioning highlight BMW Championship storylines

The BMW Championship marks the second leg of the three-event FedExCup Playoffs, with a 50-player starting field that will be reduced to 30 players for next week’s TOUR Championship at a recently renovated East Lake.

This week’s Colorado backdrop is new to the BMW Championship but an old friend to the TOUR, as Castle Pines Golf Club previously hosted The International from 1986 to 2006, with a series of dramatic finishes including an all-timer from Steve Lowery (more on that later). The Denver-area venue, situated high above sea level, will pose unique questions to the top 50 players on the season-long FedExCup standings (who have all qualified for next year’s eight Signature Events).

It's an esteemed field and setting for the PGA TOUR’s longest-running non-major, with stakes including the race for the No. 1 spot on the FedExCup into the TOUR Championship (yet to be decided), the final week of automatic qualification for the Presidents Cup at Royal Montreal, and the sure-to-be-volatile top-30 bubble.

Without further ado, here are The Five storylines to follow at the BMW Championship.

1. Chase for No. 1 seed at East Lake

Only two players have a mathematical chance to assume the No. 1 spot on the FedExCup into next week’s TOUR Championship at East Lake, but they’re the two players you might expect – Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele. The two have been a class unto themselves in 2024, as Scheffler has notched six TOUR titles including the Masters and THE PLAYERS Championship, with Schauffele recording major titles at the PGA Championship and The Open Championship.

Scheffler can clinch the No. 1 spot on the FedExCup into the TOUR Championship with a solo fourth or better at the BMW, while Schauffele can assume No. 1 with a win if Scheffler finishes in a two-way T4 or worse. The No. 1 seed will start the TOUR Championship at 10-under, using the Starting Strokes format, while No. 2 will start at 8-under. That two-stroke advantage could prove pivotal down the stretch – although Scheffler has yet to win a FedExCup despite holding the No. 1 spot into each of the last two TOUR Championships. Still, the world No. 1 won’t be looking to surrender any strokes.

Expect both players to be in the mix at Castle Pines (Schauffele finished T2 at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, with Scheffler taking solo fourth), and perhaps a game-within-the-game down the stretch.

2. Drama around top-30 bubble

The top 30 players on the FedExCup standings after the BMW Championship will advance to the TOUR Championship, maintain their hopes of the season-long FedExCup title (the Starting Strokes format assures that no player will face more than a 10-shot deficit to start the week), and likely qualify for all four major championships in 2025.

With the BMW Championship’s starting field of 50 players, it means just 60% of the field will advance to East Lake. And with quadruple FedExCup points on offer (2,000 points to the winner), it promises plenty of volatility in the standings at Castle Pines.

Despite playing through a torn labrum, Denny McCarthy finished ninth at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship to move from No. 45 to No. 30 on the FedExCup standings, and he’ll play the role of bubble boy as the BMW Championship gets underway. It’s not an unfamiliar spot for the veteran pro, who rode the bubble at last year’s BMW (contested at Olympia Fields outside Chicago) before finishing No. 33 on the FedExCup, narrowly missing his first TOUR Championship berth. McCarthy will be motivated to not let that history repeat.

Just outside the bubble are No. 31 Tommy Fleetwood (three points behind McCarthy) and No. 32 Chris Kirk (19 points behind McCarthy), with other notables needing a big week at Castle Pines including No. 36 Matt Fitzpatrick, No. 37 Will Zalatoris, No. 41 Adam Scott and No. 43 Max Homa. There’s a silver lining for those who don’t advance to East Lake – all BMW Championship qualifiers have guaranteed a spot in all 2025 Signature Events – but that won’t lessen the sting Sunday afternoon for the 20 players who finish outside the mark.

3. Late-stage Presidents Cup auditions

The BMW Championship marks the final event before this year’s Presidents Cup automatic qualifiers are finalized. The top six on each of the U.S. Team standings and International Team standings after the BMW will qualify for next month’s biennial competition at Royal Montreal. After next week’s TOUR Championship, each side will make six captain’s picks to round out the roster.

The current top six on the American side: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay and Sahith Theegala. The next six are Tony Finau, Russell Henley, Max Homa, Brian Harman, Sam Burns and Akshay Bhatia – with notables outside the top 12 who might be considered including Justin Thomas, Billy Horschel and the fast-ascending Davis Thompson.

The current top six on the International side: Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Jason Day, Adam Scott and Byeong Hun An. In a wild twist, five of the next nine names on the standings are Canadian (Corey Conners, Nick Taylor, Adam Hadwin, Taylor Pendrith and Mackenzie Hughes), jockeying with Min Woo Lee, Cam Davis, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Si Woo Kim.

Each captain faces a series of questions in determining their captain’s picks, with the next two weeks allowing contenders to make their closing arguments. For U.S. Team Captain Jim Furyk, does he layer up with proven veterans in international team competition, or will he bring in a contingent of fresh faces? International Team Captain Mike Weir must figure out how Canada-heavy to layer his roster, which could make for a raucous home-field advantage at Royal Montreal, or does he dig into the stats to ensure the most in-form players will don the International kits? It will make for fascinating fodder across the next two weeks, with the Sunday drama at the BMW largely focused on the six automatic qualifiers for each side – but also with the next level of contenders building their cases.

4. Keep your calculators handy

The PGA TOUR rarely travels to significant elevation (pour one out for Chapultepec), but that will change at the BMW Championship, as Castle Pines is situated 6,200 feet above sea level and plays to 8,130 yards. The course is expected to play roughly 7,300 yards after adjustment, a more typical length on the TOUR circuit, but the elevation change will require players to answer atypical questions. Conventional wisdom suggests a ball flies 10% further at altitude, but that isn’t always exactly the case, and the adjustment range could differ based on outside factors such as distance and loft.

PGA TOUR players aren’t mathematicians by trade (aside from perhaps Corey Conners, who famously majored in actuarial mathematics at Kent State), but players and their caddies might need to keep those calculations top-of-mind as they strive to perfect their distance control at Castle Pines.

“The tough thing with elevation is it's not as consistent as sea level,” said Colorado native Wyndham Clark, who will make his first TOUR start in his home state this week. “So if you hit your 7-iron always about 185 at sea level, it constantly goes 185. Here at altitude, now let's call it 205. Well, it can go 205 one shot and then 210 the next shot and then 200 the next shot. There's a little inconsistency in the thin air and altitude depending on how high you hit it. If anyone seems to err, go long or short, it's probably because of trajectory. That's going to be the challenge. Everyone is going to have a good idea of how far they're hitting the clubs, but you can sometimes just hit one forever in Colorado.”

Clark and his peers will embrace that challenge at Castle Pines.

5. The next Steve Lowery?

In one of the most absurd, dramatic finishes in PGA TOUR history, Steve Lowery carded an albatross and a hole-out eagle on the back nine of the 2002 International at Castle Pines – in addition to an up-and-down from a half-submerged lie in a water hazard – en route to nearly tracking down Rich Beem for the victory. (Beem finished 1 point ahead of Lowery in the Modified Stableford format; Beem proceeded to win the PGA Championship at Hazeltine two weeks later.)

This week’s BMW Championship will feature 72 holes of traditional stroke-play, sans Stableford, but Lowery’s story is indicative of Castle Pines’ unpredictability. It should make for dramatic theater, both atop the leaderboard and near the top-30 bubble. For potential pivotal holes, look to Lowery’s heroics for clues – he holed a wedge for eagle at the par-4 15th, then he dunked a 6-iron for albatross from 217 yards at the par-5 17th. (His water scramble came at the par-5 14th, after removing his right shoe and sock for the splash shot.)

“It doesn’t get any better than that,” Beem told Lowery afterwards.

The only caveat to Lowery’s effort – he didn’t in fact win the tournament, as his birdie effort on the 72nd hole narrowly burned the edge. This year’s potential Lowery will look to pair heroics with hardware.